Province ignored advice on Hoop and Holler cut: ex-flood boss

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This article was published 30/09/2011 (5503 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

FORMER provincial flood forecaster Alf Warkentin is once again speaking out against his former employer, this time to insist there was no need to make the Hoop and Holler cut.

In May, at the height of the Assiniboine River flood, Warkentin criticized the way flood forecasts were handled in early 2011. Warkentin was acting as an adviser to the province at the time.

Now, Warkentin says the province ignored his advice, including in the days leading up to the Hoop and Holler cut.

Warkentin said the province went ahead with the controlled breach in the Assiniboine River dike southeast of Portage la Prairie despite his insistence the river had already crested.

Manitoba Water Stewardship ordered the cut in an effort to relieve pressure on the Portage Diversion and the Assiniboine River dikes east of Portage la Prairie. Provincial officials feared breaches in both the diversion, which had been expanded to handle flows of 34,000 cubic feet per second, and the Assiniboine River dikes, which were built up to a capacity of 19,000 cubic feet per second.

On May 13, the day before the Hoop and Holler cut, the province predicted the Assiniboine River would peak at 54,000 to 56,000 cubic feet per second southwest of Portage la Prairie between May 19 and 21.

Warkentin said that forecast was flawed, as subsequent crests on the Assiniboine River southwest of Portage la Prairie later attested.

“As it turned out, the two crests were both in the range of 52,000 to 52,500 cubic feet per second, making it a marginal call as to whether the breach was needed,” Warkentin said Thursday, via email.

He surmised provincial staff and possibly consultants provided senior politicians with the flawed advice.

In a response Thursday, Emergency Measures Minister Steve Ashton said he stands by the decisions provincial experts made in May — including Warkentin — and won’t start second-guessing them now.

The risk to other properties east of Portage la Prairie was just too great to ignore if the Assiniboine River dikes were to burst, Ashton said.

“When we were faced with a decision, we did not hesitate to make that decision,” he said. “We did it because we had thousands of homes potentially at risk.”

Warkentin, however, said he did not believe there was a serious possibility the Assiniboine River dikes would fail.

“Yes, there was seepage, but that does not mean a dike failure is imminent or would occur at all. In my view, they could have assumed a small risk and put at least 19,000 (cfs) down the river for the three-month period,” he said.

Warkentin was directly involved in the training his successor, Philip Mutulu, a provincial official said Thursday.

bartley.kives@freepress.mb.ca bruce.owen@freepress.mb.ca