NDP ’unpopular’ in Westman, poll shows

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This article was published 19/12/2015 (3893 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

If new polling numbers hold up, the governing NDP will be decimated in western Manitoba in the upcoming provincial election.

The New Democrats are polling at just 18 per cent across Westman, according to a Probe Research Poll that asked: “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?”

“If you’re the NDP, it’s ugly,” Probe vice-president Curtis Brown said. “The NDP has three seats now, and if this trend holds for the election, they may have no seats because the Conservatives are maintaining their high level of support and the Liberals have really eaten into the NDP base.”

The NDP constituencies of Swan River, Dauphin and Brandon East are up for grabs, according to Brown.

Since its inception in 1969, Brandon East voters have elected only two MLAs to the provincial legislature. Longtime NDPer Len Evans won the seat in 1969 and held it until current MLA Drew Caldwell captured the seat in 1999, retaining it in three consecutive elections since.

In 2011, 55 per cent of voters said they would cast a ballot for the NDP in Brandon East, a 16-point lead over the Progressive Conservatives.

Today, the NDP is in third place at 18 per cent, while the Tories lead at 41 per cent and the Liberals sit in second with 38 per cent of the decided vote.

“The NDP are really unpopular,” Brown said. “Drew Caldwell may have some personal popularity, but this time around, it looks like a lot of the support he got in the last election is going to the Liberals.

“If Brandon East can go, what else can go?”

Brandon East has changed demographically over the last decade, according to Brown. New subdivisions on the North Hill and to the southeast might lean more conservative.

In the last federal election, there was a trend toward strategic voting, and Brown said the NDP has already subtly implied voters should implement the strategy as a way of keeping the PCs out of power. However, Brown said as the NDP’s popularity continues to slip, so does its credibility to make that plea.

“At some point, it could be the Liberals making the argument not to waste your time on the NDP and if you want a progressive government, vote for (the Liberals),” he said.

Liberal traction, coming on the heels of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s landslide victory, makes the provincial election a bit of “wild card,” according to Brown.

While he pays some attention to polls, Caldwell said the only poll that matters is on election day.

He called PC Leader Brian Pallister and Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari the two most “extreme right-wing politicians in Canada.”

Caldwell said recent Liberal policy announcements — a rent freeze and the privatization of liquor sales — “attacked” landlords and public employees in the province.

He also took aim at Brandon East Liberal candidate Vanessa Hamilton.

“(She) is basically abandoning her candidates in Riverview,” Caldwell said about Hamilton’s decision to resign her city council seat in her first term and seek provincial office.

“It speaks volumes about the motives and integrity of the candidate. You’re not interested in the constituents at that point — you are interested in advancing yourself and your personal agenda.”

Caldwell said he’ll continue to advance Brandon’s interests locally, provincially and nationally.

Hamilton said Caldwell shouldn’t throw stones because he also left council to pursue a career in provincial politics. Caldwell resigned in his third term on council.

She said the NDP is using fear tactics as a way to campaign.

“Change is in the air,” Hamilton said, adding that she’s not surprised by the polling data. “My heart was all in with city council, but I believe in the Liberal party and I think people need a voice.”

Hamilton said the battle within NDP ranks leading to a leadership vote in March has divided some of the party’s supporters in Brandon.

“(Caldwell) stuck by his leader (Premier Greg Selinger), but I don’t feel he’s stuck by the residents of Brandon East,” she said.

“There are definitely some members and NDP supporters in Brandon who supported (leadership candidate) Theresa Oswald instead, and there is a fracture.”

Brandon West Tory MLA Reg Helwer was happy to hear the PCs are polling at 55 per cent in his constituency, but said he wouldn’t take anything for granted.

“We’ve been out listening to people —sometimes at the door and sometimes in other places —and we’re hearing that people are tired of paying more and getting less and they want a change in Manitoba politics,” Helwer said.

Twenty-four per cent of decided voters in Brandon West said they would vote NDP, while 18 per cent supported the Liberals.

Helwer echoed Hamilton’s sentiments that the NDP will fearmonger more leading up to the scheduled April 19 election.

“If they could run on their record and be proud of it, they would — but they can’t,” Helwer said.

He said the PCs will take a different tone.

“We’re talking about what we believe the future of Manitoba can be and the opportunities that are out there for Manitoba, as opposed to what we are hearing from other parties who are attacking us every day. We’re going to tell the truth about who we are.”

Helwer currently faces no competition from the NDP and Liberals, who have yet to nominate candidates.

NDP spokesman Matt Austman said the party has “a number of candidates interested, and they are being reviewed by our candidate approval committee.”

Mike Brown, director of communications for the Liberals, said there is no candidate for Brandon West yet, “but we are seeing growing interest from around the province as momentum grows.”

Calls to Brandon East PC candidate Len Isleifson, who is running against Caldwell and is also a former city councillor, were not returned by press time.

With a sample of 800, the poll results are within plus or minus 3.5 per cent, 95 per cent of the time. The margin grows in the population sub-groups to plus or minus 4.9 per cent. The survey was conducted between Nov. 30 and Dec. 14.

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