Predict-o-matic: Who is going to win on Wednesday?

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 25/10/2010 (5822 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Based on my extensive reading of campaign literature, of news stories and analysis, and of polling data, I am going to predict the winners in each race of the Brandon municipal election.

Here’s where fortunes could be made, if this was some kind of prediction pool, like on Oscar night. (Is it even legal to bet on the outcome of elections?)

Because I want to keep you all reading to the end, I’m going to start with the school trustees and work my way up to the mayoral race, which is probably the closest race and the one that everyone’s most interested in. Feel free to weigh in with your own predictions in a comment, below.

Note: These are not necessarily the people I’m voting for, just the people I think will win. Here we go!

 

SCHOOL TRUSTEES

There are 18 people who have put their name forward for eight spots on the school board. Because this is a city-wide race, there’s a lot of message dilution there, and the race for school division is primarily about name recognition.

That gives incumbents a big advantage, unless they are saddled with some bad name recognition, due to unpopular decisions over the past term, like, say, dramatically re-jigging the French immersion program at the drop of a hat.

I’m not putting these in order, by the way, but I think the top-eight finishers will be:

• Shaun Cameron
• Jim Murray
• Linda Ross
• George Buri
• Vanessa Hamilton
• Pat Bowslaugh
• Marty Snelling
• Glen Kruck

Depending on how the votes shake out, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see the following three people sneak up on the list, too:

• Kevan Sumner
• Patrick Pulak
• Bea Jolly

But I just don’t like the chances of the rest of them:

• Michael Barrett
• Mark Sefton
• Wade Winmill
• Peter Bartlette
• Sandra Koch-Gensiorek
• Orest Bobei
• Marla Galatiuk

A note to voters particularly interested in the race for school trustee: You can vote for up to eight candidates, but you don’t have to. If there are only two or three that you really care about, stop right there, or you risk bumping your favourites off the top-eight list by giving extra votes to someone you care less about.

A note to school trustee candidates: There is often a a very small difference between being #8 and #9, making this race an excellent candidate for a recount. And, I happen to think we should have a recount.

 

CITY COUNCIL

Ward 1 (Assiniboine)

• Jeff Fawcett
• Mike Volek

I have been impressed with what I’ve read about Volek, but he’s up against a juggernaut in Fawcett. The name recognition alone is almost enough for Fawcett to cruise to victory. Combined with his easy likability and next-door-neighbour vibe, and this one’s Fawcett’s in a walk.

Winner: Jeff Fawcett

 

Ward 2 (Rosser)

• Darlene Paquette
• T. Keith Edmunds
• Corey Roberts

 

I always think of Rosser Ward as Brandon’s most prestigious ward, and this three-way race would normally be the most interesting in the election. But there’s another three-way race going on in Richmond that has even more drama, and both of these races pale in comparion to the exciting mayoral contest.

That said, if you focus on this race, there’s a lot going on here. Paquette could bring a female aboriginal perspective that is sorely missing from Brandon city council, but (to her credit) she hasn’t run on her race or gender alone.

The other two candidates are both (white male) business owners, both already active on downtown boards like Renaissance Brandon. That gives them an edge over Paquette, I think.

So it comes down to bartender Roberts or bookstore-owner Edmunds. I like the dramatic possibilities of a pints vs paperbacks battle, but I think pints have the advantage.

Winner: Corey Roberts

 

Ward 7 (Linden Lanes)

• Shawn Berry
• Michael Blatherwick
• Doug Orr
• Ramona Coey

 

This four-way race would normally be tough to call, since they are all serious candidates and no one has the incumbency advantage. But Coey took a leadership role in her time on school board, and, by ducking out now and jumping to city council, I think she’s going to escape the milieu school backlash.

Winner: Ramona Coey

 

Ward 8 (Richmond)

• Gladden Smith
• Margo Campbell (incumbent)
• Stephen Montague

 

I think this three-way race is the most interesting city council contest this year (aside from the mayoral battle). A lot of people see this as a rematch between incumbent Campbell and insurgent Montague, who also clashed in 2006.

That year, Campbell narrowly escaped with her seat, and Montague’s been quietly campaigning ever since.

But the entry of a third candidate, Smith, makes this one verrry interesting. Smith came in a very respectable second against Jim McCrae during the last election, and I think he is a strong dark-horse candidate.

In fact, although I think Montague will manage to take the seat this time, I’m going to predict that Campbell topples to third, and Smith will take second place.

Winner: Stephen Montague

 

Ward 9 (Riverview)

• Errol Black (incumbent)
• Len Isleifson

 

This is my ward, and Isleifson has worked hard leafleting for my vote. But Black has deep roots here, and he’s done a masterful job over the past few years of showing that he is an engaged and interested councillor — even if you disagree with his specific positions.

That makes him exceedingly difficult to knock off.

Winner: Errol Black

 

Ward 10 (Green Acres)

• Jan Chaboyer
• Don Jessiman (incumbent)

 

This is a repeat of the same contest that this ward saw in 2006, when Jessiman beat Chaboyer by 686-402. That’s a difficult deficit to make up for Chaboyer, and I don’t think that Jessiman has done anything to make 150 people switch their vote.

Winner: Don Jessiman

 

MAYOR

• Dave Burgess (incumbent)
• Nickolas Avlonitis
• Henry Hanson
• Shari Decter Hirst

 

And this one is for all the marbles. A word, first of all, to thank both Avlonitis and Hanson for running. I think it’s important that the political process remain free and open for all to participate, not just for candidates who are already, for all intents and purposes, part of the establishment.

Of course, neither of them are in any position to win. I think Hanson, especially, has run a great campaign for a long-shot candidate. If it weren’t such a high-stakes showdown between the two front-runners, I think Hanson would be in a position to earn over a thousand votes.

But, every vote matters in the Burgess vs Decter Hirst showdown, and that’s going to bleed away a lot of support from Hanson — and protest votes from Avlonitis — as people try to vote strategically either one way or the other.

Until recently, I would have said that the winds of change were in the air, and that Decter Hirst would pull a win out on Election Day — narrowly, but safely.

But then I talked to one voter, who had cast her ballot in the advance poll, and who told me that she had thought she would never vote for Burgess — but then, at the last minute, did just that. Why? Because she was scared of the financial cost of keeping the Sportsplex open.

Add in the recent poll results that show the two candidates tied, and I think Decter Hirst may have peaked early, with Burgess capturing some late momentum as the presumed front-runner now feels like an underdog.

I predict a huge turnout on Election Day — more than 15,000 votes. And I predict that fewer than 100 will separate Burgess from Decter Hirst. It will all come down to which campaign team has the most hustle on Wednesday.

This one’s tough, but I’ll go with my gut.

Winner: Shari Decter Hirst

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If you’ve made it all this way, and still want to read more, former Brandon Sun political writer and editorial page editor Curtis Brown, who now works for polling company Probe Research, has a lengthy blog post about possible outcomes in the Brandon election.

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So now, what do you think will happen?