NDP make gains in Winnipeg

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 02/07/2011 (5593 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It has been a difficult spring for a lot of rural Manitobans this year, what with ongoing flood battles that threaten to swamp the summer season.

But a new Probe Research poll suggests Manitoba’s governing New Democrats have benefited from the flood fight, not to mention the return of the Winnipeg Jets — especially in Winnipeg, where getting the vote matters most.

After a year of trailing the Progressive Conservatives in public opinion polls, Premier Greg Selinger and his NDP have ridden a wave of support back to a dead heat with the Opposition, at 44 per cent.

As the Winnipeg Free Press reported earlier this week, the NDP surge — which is based in Winnipeg — has come at the expense of the Liberals, who’ve dropped to just nine per cent support. Three months ago, the New Democrats trailed the Tories by 12 points.

Within Winnipeg, NDP support has risen eight percentage points since March, reaching fully one-half of the electorate, 50 per cent, compared with 37 per cent for the Conservatives, and 11 per cent for the Liberals.

The NDP have had an amazing amount of good fortune this year, as government ministers were in the news on a near-daily basis giving updates to media regarding the various flood fights along the Assiniboine, Souris and Red rivers.

While the government has taken some heat over its decision to breach the Hoop and Holler dam, for the fact that cottages along the shores of Lake Manitoba have swamped and for failing to address some of the concerns of provincial cattle producers in Westman, this has not translated into a problem for Selinger.

As the Probe poll indicates, while the Tories remain the first choice outside the Perimeter at 55 per cent, that number is down seven percentage points since March, with the NDP climbing to 36 per cent from 24 per cent in popular rural support.

On top of all the flood coverage, the party literally bought back some of that good will by carpet bombing the province with announcements for everything from $4 billion for yet another province-wide infrastructure repair program, new jail construction, to the preservation of 807,650 hectares of boreal forest and wetlands, and a campaign to save the Canadian Wheat Board.

Having ministers fan out across the province announcing and reannouncing government programs has ensured that Manitobans are constantly bombarded by images of smiling and/or grim-faced NDP ministers looking busy, handing out cash or touting the party line. It proves, once again, that face time matters in politics.

And there is absolutely no doubt that Selinger scored a major coup in sharing the stage with NHL commissioner Gary Bettman and True North partners Mark Chipman and David Thomson to officially announce the return of NHL hockey to Winnipeg.

All of these factors, combined with the fact that Winnipeg residents really don’t attach much importance to rural issues, have worked in the government’s favour.

But the cash and program announcements will all dry up at midnight on July 5 — the province’s new fixed election date rules say no government can advertise or publish information about programs or activities 90 days before the Oct. 4 vote.

With the election now a solid three months away, and the NDP’s government-funded PR campaign effectively muzzled, it will be an interesting race to watch — but only if the Tories can successfully define issues that resonate within the city of Winnipeg.

As the Tories keep reminding us, there are plenty of battle lines drawn, including the rather sorry state of our rural health-care system, the question of where to build Bipole III and the province’s failure to renovate the Shellmouth Dam.

Unfortunately for Progressive Conservative Leader Hugh McFadyen, his favourite talking points are mainly rural-based issues. And while it pains us, we know that rural issues just don’t hold water in Winnipeg.