Proposed changes to provincial electoral map put North Hill in Spruce Woods constituency

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 19/05/2018 (2759 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Proposed changes to Manitoba’s electoral map would see Brandon residents living north of the Assiniboine River voting in the Spruce Woods electoral division.

Manitoba’s Electoral Divisions Boundaries Commission released its interim report on Friday, outlining boundary adjustments for all 57 constituencies.

Due to population growth in Brandon, the commission is recommending the northern boundary for both Brandon East and Brandon West be moved south to the river.

“It’s always the domino effect,” said Alison Mitchell, commission spokesperson.

“So because the Brandon East and Brandon West boundaries have shifted slightly south, the areas north of the river that used to be part of Brandon East and Brandon West have been absorbed into Spruce Woods.”

The commission was established in January to review the boundaries for Manitoba provincial elections, which happens every 10 years. The Electoral Divisions Act requires the commission to base its review on Statistics Canada 2016 population data for Manitoba. The total population of the province (1,278,365) is divided by the number of provincial electoral divisions in the province (57), establishing a quotient for each division (approximately 22,427).

Brandon’s population increased by 6.1 per cent between 2011 and 2016, according to the 2016 census. The data shows the number of people living in Brandon has increased from 46,061 five years ago to 48,859 in 2016.

“Brandon East has (had the) most growth … and some growth in Brandon West, so that required the northern boundary to come down,” Mitchell said. “For the most part in this process, there was a real attempt made not to have a municipality split across two boundaries, but Brandon was one of the exceptions just because of the geography and because of the increase in population.”

Under the proposed changes, the population for the Brandon East electoral division is 25,380, while Brandon West is 23,480 and Spruce Woods is 21,530.

Brandon University political science Prof. Kelly Saunders said this change will likely come as a shock for many North Hill residents.

She recalled her time on the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission in 2011, which instituted changed for the 2015 federal election. Saunders said she remembers hearing residents’ feedback at the public consultation meetings.

“People would get really quite emotional and upset over the idea of the fact that they’ve identified with a certain electoral district their whole lives and then now all of a sudden, they were going to be required to vote in another,” Saunders said.

The proposed changes mean that the City of Brandon would now be represented by three constituencies, and as Saunders pointed out, two are “distinctly urban,” while the third has been “predominantly more rural.”

Saunders said this will put added pressure on the MLA, who would now represent increasingly diverse interests within their constituency. Another adjustment will be for the mayor of Brandon, who will now work with three MLAs in the city.

“That just adds an added level of complexity for political representation,” she said.

What these changes will mean for the political parties in Brandon remains to be seen, but Saunders does have a prediction.

“On the face of it, it looks like the Tories are going to be hurt by the loss of those voters more than the NDP and the Liberals,” she said.

Polls north of the Assiniboine River in the last election went fairly significantly Progressive Conservative over NDP, Saunders pointed out.

“That means that Len (Isleifson), if he is going to be candidate again … he’s going to be losing a fair chunk of votes in that next election,” she said. “Those voters are now going to be in Spruce Woods.”

It’s possible those votes could be offset by the party’s ability to pick up some support in the new subdivisions in Brandon’s south end.

Meanwhile, the commission is also proposing that the communities of Dauphin and Swan River be combined into a new Dauphin-Swan River electoral division, while the Riding Mountain division has been expanded.

Arthur-Virden is to be renamed Turtle Mountain, in reference to the provincial park in the area.

The next provincial election is in 2020, and the boundary changes are still in the proposed stage. Public hearings are being held across the province, including in Brandon on Sept. 13 at 5 p.m. at the Victoria Inn.

“Groups and individuals can sign up to make a submission at these events, so that’s part of the whole consultation and transparency of this process,” Mitchell said.

» jaustin@brandonsun.com

» Twitter: @jillianaustin