Looking ahead to the 2020 presidential race

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 02/02/2019 (2446 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

There are fewer than 700 days left until the November 2020 U.S. presidential election and already candidates for both the Republican and Democratic nominations have begun announcing their intentions.

On the Republican side, it is widely believed, and advanced by President Donald Trump himself, that he will run for a second term. Trump’s proxies are reportedly working inside the party to limit the possibility that his nomination will be challenged. Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan and former Ohio governor John Kasich are two names being bandied about as potential primary challengers to Trump, as well as newly minted Utah Sen. Mitt Romney.

The history of successful incumbent challenges is not a long list and is populated with names like Ted Kennedy and Pat Buchanan. Gerald Ford was challenged in 1976 by Ronald Reagan. While Ford won the nomination, he lost the post-Watergate election to Jimmy Carter, who subsequently lost to Reagan only four years later.

In fact, the last elected president denied his party’s nomination for a second term was Franklin Pierce back in 1852.

While Trump’s term feels extraordinary, it really isn’t. Watergate was a remarkably ugly period in American politics, but so too was the Vietnam War, and the Iran-Contra hearings, and the Clinton impeachment hearings. This world view will help some manage during this turbulent time — understanding that this too shall pass.

Short of a health concern, or more likely an ugly scandal, Trump will carry his party’s banner in the 2020 presidential election. It’s early, but let’s talk about who he will face on the ballot.

At this point in the nomination cycle, it is typical for there to be a top echelon of candidates (and rumoured candidates) and the also-rans. For every Hillary Clinton, there’s always a Martin O’Malley, a Lincoln Chaffee, or even a Lawrence Lessig. (Research that name!)

In 2016, the upper echelon was Hillary and Bernie Sanders.

This time the Democratic upper echelon includes Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. The second tier includes people like Julian Castro, John Delaney, Beto O’Rourke, Tulsi Gabbard and some we haven’t even heard about yet.

Of course, several have already announced their intentions, while others are using the guise of “exploratory committees” to determine whether the time is right for their candidacy. Harris has entered the race, for example, while Gillibrand has an exploratory committee. These committees generally consist of close friends and supporters including fundraisers and sitting government officials. These are the people who are standing behind the candidate at their official announcement and have made commitments of support for their candidate.

It’s early in the cycle, but there’s no time like the present to be wrong, so we might as well start betting on the outlook today. It might not be particularly valuable, but it’s fun to have a horse in the race, so let’s start handicapping.

The candidate Trump fears most is former vice-president Joe Biden. Obviously, he has tremendous name recognition, fundraising capacity and presence, but he has also unsuccessfully run for this party’s nomination twice before and is in his mid-70s.

It’s hard to see New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker as the candidate. He’s young, ambitious and very smart, but I think he suffers from a lack of authenticity. Like Hillary Clinton, he seems like every utterance has been designed by pollsters and ad execs.

If Joe Biden is too old, then what hope does Bernie Sanders have? He was unique in 2016 (fighting against the establishment) and that gave him a platform that isn’t going to be available in 2020.

I feel similarly about Elizabeth Warren — her brand of liberalism was refreshing in 2016, but not so much today.

Gillibrand and Harris are both smart and strong. While I would vote for either of these two women, I view Harris as more substantial with a longer record of political achievement at the state level. As a former prosecutor, she should also appeal more to conservative Democrats than Gillibrand.

Harris, as a black woman, will benefit from a demographic that is more reliably loyal than any single other demographic — black women. I like her chances.

It is very early to put an oar in the water, and this virtually guarantees I will be proven wrong, but that’s half the fun.