Flood forecast optimistic in Westman

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This article was published 13/04/2023 (1268 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

As communities along the Red River in Manitoba and North Dakota brace for potential high waters, the province’s flood forecast paints a more optimistic picture for Westman.

Whereas the Red River between Emerson and the floodway inlet remains at risk for major flooding, the Assiniboine River has been assessed with a low to moderate threat as climbing temperatures have kick-started spring snowmelt.

“The risk of spring flooding is generally low along several other rivers including the Souris, Roseau, Rat and Pembina rivers,” the flood update stated on Tuesday. “Water levels are expected to remain below community and individual flood protection levels.”

In most other Manitoba basins, the flood risk is said to be low. However, the province is warning residents that the risk of flooding in any basin could change depending on weather in upcoming weeks.

Earlier this week, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum declared a statewide emergency in anticipation of spring flooding along the Red River. In Minot, N.D., which is upstream of Westman on the Souris River, the Minot Daily News reported Tuesday that the city is not expecting any flooding.

As of 11:05 a.m. Wednesday, Environment Canada’s real-time hydrometric data station for the Assiniboine River in Brandon listed a water level of 356.5 metres above sea level.

By comparison, when Brandon experienced some localized flooding along the river last May, the water level was around 358 metres above sea level.

When waters were that high, Dinsdale and Queen Elizabeth parks were largely submerged and paths around the Riverbank Discovery Centre had to be closed.

According to Brandon’s emergency manager, Tobin Praznik, weather conditions so far this spring have been favourable for minimizing flood risks, with minimal precipitation and gradually increasing temperatures causing a slow thaw.

“Although favourable now, flood conditions can change quickly with one significant weather system or combination of smaller weather systems during the spring melt time frame. Therefore, we will continue to monitor the provincial flood forecasts, survey river levels and continue with our preparedness actions in anticipation of any changes with the flood forecast,” he said in an email.

Praznik warned Brandon residents and their pets to stay off the Assiniboine River during this time, as ice conditions are changing rapidly.

The worst-hit community in Westman last year was Minnedosa, where schools had to be closed, thousands of sandbags placed and homes evacuated when the Little Saskatchewan River flooded.

Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation’s flood information website listed that river’s levels as approximately 522.74 metres above sea level, more than a metre below the nearby riverbank’s capacity of approximately 524 metres.

Minnedosa Mayor Ken Cameron said on Wednesday his community has been told by the province there’s little risk of the Little Saskatchewan flooding this year under current conditions.

“That’s very encouraging, but we’re not out of the woods yet as we know from last spring,” he said. “Everything north of us [flows] through our town. The good news would be that Clear Lake probably has half the snowpack they had last year.”

He added that being a town adjacent to a river, there’s always concern over flooding. In Cameron’s experience, the community has always come through when the conditions get tough.

Going forward, he said Minnedosa is looking to purchase its own sandbagging machine.

Despite the warmer temperatures, Environment and Climate Change Canada meteorologist Justin Shelley told the Sun on Wednesday that a Colorado low is supposed to hit southern Manitoba starting today.

While the last Colorado low led to blizzard warnings, Shelley said this system likely won’t be as heavy, featuring mostly rain with pockets of sleet or isolated snow flurries.

“What does accumulate wouldn’t really stick or last for too long because it’s still going to be a few degrees above zero,” Shelley said.

This storm is expected to bring approximately 10 to 15 millimetres of rain to Westman coupled with gusts of wind between 40 to 60 kilometres an hour. The worst of the system, Shelley said, will hit southeastern Saskatchewan, south-central and southeast Manitoba.

Soon, daily highs are expected to be in the 8 C to 10 C range, except for Friday, which is expected to be colder as the Colorado low is followed by a front of cold air.

Overnight lows will dip below freezing in the short term.

» cslark@brandonsun.com

» Twitter: @ColinSlark