Potential for wildfire risk; flood risk low to moderate

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This article was published 27/03/2024 (918 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Now that spring has arrived, the provincial government is warning Manitobans about potential wildfire risk, while offering reassurance that the risk of significant spring flooding is low to moderate.

On Tuesday, Manitoba Wildlife Service (MWS) issued a press release warning of prevalent dry conditions that could escalate fire risk throughout the province, particularly in open areas where grass and bush fires could ignite as snow melts.

MWS forecasts that the next few weeks will be mostly dry, though parts of southeastern Manitoba may be the exception. Prolonged dry spells can result in more intense fires that require more effort and resources to put out. MWS will continue to monitor wildfire risk in the coming weeks, and fire danger assessments are scheduled once forested regions are free of snow.

The primary cause of spring fires is often human activity, and dried vegetation and matted grass easily ignite. This can increase the likelihood of rapid-spreading wildfires, particularly during windy periods. While no burn or travel restrictions are currently in place, Manitobans are urged to steer clear of wildfire-prone zones and remain attentive to road closures or detours.

ATV operators venturing into backcountry areas are advised to stick to established trails, conduct regular inspections for debris around their vehicles and properly dispose of any debris they find. ATV drivers are also encouraged to carry essential firefighting equipment such as fire extinguishers, axes and shovels to combat small fires effectively.

People looking to have outdoor fires within the burn permit area from April 1 to Nov. 15 require a provincial burning permit, which can be picked up at provincial district offices. The permits, issued under the Wildfires Act, may be subject to abrupt cancellations or restrictions based on current and changing fire danger conditions. Burning permits will not be granted for areas where municipal burning restrictions are in effect. Burn permit holders are advised to monitor weather forecasts, equip themselves with adequate suppression gear and establish appropriate fuel breaks before initiating any burning activities. Outdoor fires must never be left unattended and should be thoroughly extinguished. Extra caution is necessary around forested regions.

The province’s latest flood outlook report suggests a low-to-moderate risk of significant spring flooding across Manitoba basins.

At freeze-up, soil moisture was normal to below normal, and winter precipitation varied from well below normal to above normal across most basins in Manitoba, which has led to the current low-to-moderate risk of significant spring flooding for most areas. Water levels are expected to stay below dikes and community flood protection levels, but the risk could change depending on factors like the rate of snowmelt and future snow and rain patterns leading up to spring runoff.

Specifically, the Red River and its tributaries face a low risk of spring flooding, while the Assiniboine River and its tributaries, along with the Interlake region, including the Icelandic and Fisher rivers, face a low-to-moderate risk. Overall, the risk is also low for other basins such as the Souris, Qu’Appelle, Rat, Roseau, Pembina, Saskatchewan and Churchill rivers, and across the Whiteshell Lakes region. Ice jam-related flooding remains a concern in areas that have historically dealt with the issue.

Most Manitoba lakes are currently at normal-to-below-normal levels and are projected to remain within their operational range after spring runoff. Based on the forecasted conditions, the Red River Floodway isn’t expected to operate this spring, and minimal operation of the Portage Diversion may only be necessary under unfavourable weather to manage water levels on the lower Assiniboine River. Operations at the Shellmouth Reservoir aim to reduce downstream flooding risk on the Assiniboine River while maintaining adequate storage for water supply and recreation.

Manitobans are advised that weather conditions between now and spring melt could change the forecast. While significant precipitation isn’t expected in much of Manitoba over the next week, Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre is keeping an eye on a potential system that might bring up to 25 millimetres of precipitation to the U.S. portion of the Red River Basin.

» mleybourne@brandonsun.com

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