Unexpected Liberal surge in Manitoba

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 22/03/2025 (208 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Support for Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is surging in Manitoba. A poll conducted by Probe Research has found that 44 per cent of Manitobans would vote for Liberal candidates if an election were held today, while 42 per cent would vote for Conservative Party candidates, and just nine per cent would vote for NDP candidates.

Those results suggest a close contest between the Liberals and Tories in ridings throughout the province, but the bigger story is the remarkable shift in voter intention that has occurred here in just the past few weeks.

In Probe’s December poll, the Tories led the Liberals by a huge 52-19 margin provincewide, with the NDP in second place at 24 per cent. Just three months later, however, the Liberals have more than doubled their support, the Tories have dropped by 10 points, and the NDP has crashed to a single digit.

In the Winnipeg region, which has eight ridings, the shift in numbers is even more staggering. Support for the Liberals has rocketed from 24 per cent in December to a huge 54 per cent today. Tory popularity has shrunk from 43 per cent three months ago to just 31 per cent, and support for the NDP has plummeted from 29 per cent to nine per cent.

Probe also found that the Liberals hold a commanding lead in every area of Winnipeg, meaning that they have a legitimate shot at sweeping all of the city’s ridings. In December, they faced the real possibility of losing the four seats they currently hold.

In rural and northern Manitoba, Probe found that support for the Tories remains high at 58 per cent — it was at 65 per cent in December — but that support for the Liberals has risen from 12 per cent in December to 30 per cent today. Support for the NDP, on the other hand, has dropped from 17 per cent to nine per cent.

In terms of demographics, the Liberals hold a large province-wide lead among voters age 35 and higher, and an even bigger lead in that category in Winnipeg. On the other hand, the Tories are leading the Liberals by a 46-33 margin among voters under 35. The Liberals also lead the Tories among women by a 50-31 margin, but the Tories hold a 53-38 lead over the Liberals among male voters.

Notably, just eight per cent of Manitobans are undecided about which party’s candidate they intend to vote for. That suggests that the levels of support we are currently seeing in the province may be fairly solid as we enter an election campaign that is expected to begin tomorrow.

What does all this information tell us about what to expect regarding the campaign and the likely outcome here in Manitoba? First, the latest Probe numbers are consistent with what is happening across the nation, so we can be confident in their accuracy.

Second, the Tory sweep that many people were expecting to occur throughout Manitoba has likely been largely derailed. Based on the current numbers, the Liberals appear to be poised to hold their four seats in Winnipeg and have a legitimate opportunity to add to that total, both in Winnipeg and possibly in the north.

Third, the Liberals’ support among older Manitobans is noteworthy because older voters typically support Tory candidates and are more likely to vote. Conversely, the Tories hold a big lead among younger voters, but that demographic is often less likely to vote and more volatile. There is a significant possibility that some of that younger support could shift back to the Liberals or NDP before election day.

Fourth, rural ridings currently held by Conservative MPs appear to be safe so far from the Liberal surge, but support for the Liberals in Brandon may parallel the levels seen in Winnipeg. If so, the outcome in the Brandon-Souris riding could be closer than many anticipated just weeks ago.

Fifth, poll results are interesting fodder for discussion, but the strength of campaigns and the quality of candidates make a huge difference at the local level, where MPs are actually elected. In that regard, the Tories have huge organizational and financial advantages over the Liberals in several Manitoba ridings, and the Liberals are still searching for candidates in many ridings.

Most importantly, the Probe numbers, along with the numbers we are seeing nationally, tell us that this could be a very close election. That likelihood emphasizes the importance of voters getting involved, becoming informed on the issues and taking the time to vote.

With the future of Canada at stake, and the likelihood of close races throughout the province, this will be an election in which every vote can make a critical difference.