Too much drama for a pointless plebiscite

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 03/05/2025 (212 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

On Tuesday, Alberta’s United Conservative Party government, which holds a majority of seats in the Alberta Legislative Assembly, introduced legislation that would make it easier for the province’s separatists to demand a referendum on the question of Alberta independence.

If the legislation is passed, the number of signatures required to put a citizen-proposed constitutional referendum question to a province-wide vote would drop from 20 per cent of Alberta’s registered voters — approximately 600,000 voters — to just 10 per cent of the turnout from the last provincial election.

That would dramatically lower the threshold to slightly more than 175,000 voters, based on the number of Albertans who cast ballots in the 2023 provincial election. In a province with a population of approximately five million, that’s not a high hurdle.

In fact, the pro-independence Alberta Prosperity Project says it has already signed up enough people online to satisfy the lower threshold. One of the group’s leaders, Dennis Modry, claims that the group had collected 70,000 names and contact information for Albertans who are willing to physically sign a petition, and that an additional 120,000 have signed up since this week’s federal election.

On Thursday, Premier Danielle Smith acknowledged that public opinion polls show a large majority of Albertans have no interest in separating from Canada, but said she also supports a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.

“As premier,” she said, “I will facilitate and lead this discussion and process with the sincere hope of securing a prosperous future for our province within a united Canada that respects our province’s constitutional rights, facilitates rather than blocks the development and export of our abundant resources, and treats us as a valued and respected partner within Confederation.”

That’s what’s really going on here. In March, Smith threatened a “national unity crisis” if the federal government doesn’t acquiesce to a list of her demands within six months. Now she’s amplifying the threat of a crisis by making it easier for a separatism campaign in her province.

She’s willing to put Alberta and, by extension, all of Canada, through a prolonged period of turmoil and uncertainty — at a time of already-great anxiety caused by the actions of the Trump administration — as leverage in order score greater concessions, and arguably greater independence, for her province.

By behaving in such a reckless and incendiary manner, however, she is causing tremendous harm both within Alberta and across the country. There are already signs that the overheated fixation regarding Alberta independence is harming business investment decisions in the province, as well as hiring decisions.

Beyond that, First Nations leaders are already warning that Smith’s words and actions violate treaties 7, 8 and 9 with various First Nations. On Wednesday, two Alberta chiefs warned Smith that “You are attempting to manufacture a national unity crisis — by enabling a referendum on separation and a fanatical cell of individuals — at the exact moment when Canadians need to unite against Donald Trump’s America.”

They’re right. That’s exactly what she is doing. Why she is choosing to do so is the question.

For weeks, Smith’s government has been the target of serious allegations of corruption regarding health-care contracts, with both the RCMP and Alberta auditor general presently conducting investigations. There have been resignations from her cabinet and caucus over the issue.

Viewed from that perspective, Smith’s attempts to fabricate a national unity crisis could be regarded as a desperate act by a frightened premier to change the channel and distract Albertans from the scandals plaguing her government. It could also represent a cynical attempt to shore up support among a vocal segment of her UCP base, while also floating yet another round of overheated grievances about the way Ottawa is treating Alberta.

Fed-bashing has helped bail out beleaguered Alberta Conservative governments in the past, so Smith may be betting that it will work this time.

She shouldn’t be sure about that. Albertans are growing increasingly frustrated by Smith’s antics and, in particular, her incessant willingness to undermine the national interest when it serves her political interests. Her government is on the ropes, and her reckless conduct is a big reason why.

Neither Alberta nor Canada can afford to have that province embroiled in months of debate, division and discord over the possibility of secession when it is clear, and even Smith admits, there is no hope of an independence referendum passing.

If the Alberta premier honestly believes that making it easier to hold such a pointless plebiscite is a good idea, she should show the courage of her convictions. She should avoid wasting time. She should call a referendum on independence now and, while she’s at it, she should also call an election.