Most Manitobans reject separatist sympathies

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 03/07/2025 (307 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

“Some people in Alberta want to hold a referendum that would ask Albertans if they should seek to form an independent country or remain in Canada. There is also some talk about doing the same thing in Saskatchewan. If there was a referendum on independence in Manitoba, would you definitely or probably vote for the province to leave Canada, or to stay in Canada?”

— A question from a recent Probe Research poll of Manitobans

Between May 28 and June 10 of this year, Manitoba polling company Probe Research asked a total of 1,000 Manitobans a series of questions regarding their views on western alienation, western separatism and their respective levels of pride in being Canadian.

The question set out above was among the questions asked. The poll found that 70 per cent of respondents would choose to stay in Canada, including 60 per cent who would “definitely” vote to stay. Another 10 per cent would “probably” vote to remain in Canada. Just 14 per cent of respondents said they would definitely vote to leave, while another seven per cent said they would probably vote to leave. Another seven per cent were undecided.

The poll also found that 82 per cent of respondents believe that “this discussion about Alberta and Saskatchewan separating from Canada will just make the country weaker at a difficult time.” Similarly, 62 per cent of respondents agreed with the statement that “I don’t take any of this discussion about Alberta and Saskatchewan leaving Canada seriously.”

Finally, 60 per cent of respondents indicated that they feel prouder to be a Canadian now than they did a year ago. For example, more than one-half of respondents expected to do more to celebrate Canada Day this year.

The obvious conclusion to be drawn from the poll is that a huge majority of Manitobans would have no interest in separating from Canada if given the opportunity. There is no serious separatist movement in this province.

That should be the focus of the coverage and commentary relating to the poll. Instead, there has been great emphasis on the poll’s finding that slight majorities of those Manitobans who voted for Conservative Party of Canada candidates in this spring’s federal election and those who voted for the Progressive Conservative candidates in the 2023 Manitoba provincial election would either “definitely” or “probably” vote to leave Canada.

In other words, among the 21 per cent of Manitobans who would either definitely or probably vote to leave Canada, more than one-half of that group are Tory supporters who have recently watched their party lose elections at both the federal and provincial level.

Newly elected PC Leader Obby Khan is likely correct in suggesting that “This last federal election didn’t deliver the kind of change people in Western Canada were looking for, so I believe some of that dissatisfaction is being expressed in the poll numbers.”

He says that his focus as Tory leader will be to change the perception that western Canadian provinces have never been fully equal partners in Confederation “and work for a better Manitoba within Canada.”

That is a laudable goal, but the Probe poll makes clear that the separatist “threat” in Manitoba is largely a problem that is festering within Khan’s own party. If he hopes to make his party competitive to win the next provincial election, which is scheduled to occur in October 2027, he must subdue the separatist sympathies that currently exist inside the PC Party.

Khan has his work cut out for him. As the results of the 2023 election made clear, many Manitobans believe that the Manitoba Tories neither reflect nor respect their values on a range of issues.

To them, this week’s revelation that a majority of the party’s supporters would support the breakup of Canada is a non-negotiable vote-loser. It will drive away critical swing voters at both the federal and provincial levels, making it even harder for Tories to win elections.

That’s a big problem for Khan and his party, but not for most other Manitobans. We love Canada and have no desire to break it up. No amount of Tory tantrums is going to change that.