Close loss called ‘significant win’ for NDP

The narrow loss for the NDP in the Spruce Woods byelection on Tuesday is being called a “significant win” by one expert, showing the party continues to gain momentum since the 2023 election.

The NDP came within 70 votes of the Progressive Conservatives — by far its closest result in the longtime PC riding.

Kelly Saunders, a political science professor at Brandon University, said while nothing has really changed since the PCs kept the seat, it does have larger effects on the political landscape in Manitoba.

“In the larger picture, this was, I think, in many ways a significant win for the NDP, even though they didn’t win the seat,” Saunders said on Wednesday. “They clearly have made some significant inroads into this riding and they did so very intentionally.”

The NDP made several funding announcements leading up to the byelection call in July. Premier Wab Kinew also made multiple trips to the riding to campaign alongside NDP candidate Ray Berthelette.

PC candidate Colleen Robbins narrowly won the election with 2,805 votes to Berthelette’s 2,735. Liberal candidate Stephen Reid finished in a distant third with 444 votes, according to Elections Manitoba’s unofficial results.

Saunders said the PC party should refocus going forward and appeal to more urban voters. She added this result shows there are fewer and fewer reliably safe seats for the Tories.

“Yes, they held on to the seat, but I think they have to be very disappointed in the results and worried about what this says for their fortunes moving forward,” she said. “They really need to find a way to broaden their message.”

Robbins received 46.7 per cent of the vote, while Grant Jackson, who won the riding in 2023 before resigning to run for federal office, won with 61.8 per cent. The constituency has long been considered a Tory stronghold.

Curtis Brown, a partner at Probe Research Inc., said Tuesday’s result shows what things are like across the province.

“The fact that (the NDP) came that close in a riding that is largely rural, usually votes conservative, it’s a pretty interesting indicator of where things are at right now in Manitoba, just with the NDP and Wab Kinew, to have a level of popularity that they have,” he said.

He said the PCs have been “struggling to find their footing a little bit” in the last few years. The PCs lost the 2023 general election, were defeated in the Tory-stronghold of Tuxedo in a June 2024 byelection and had a close leadership vote that saw Obby Khan win with less votes than his opponent, Wally Daudrich. Khan won the leadership vote because points were weighted by constituency.

“I don’t think they’re at a great spot, but I don’t think it’s all dire either,” Brown said, “I think they’re going to be happy that they kept that seat … It is something for them to build on, as opposed to if they would have lost it.”

He said other Tory seats that finished in close results, such as Brandon West and Selkirk, should be of concern to the party.

MLA-elect Colleen Robbins said Wednesday that people had reached out to her apologizing for not casting a vote during the byelection as they “felt that I had good chance of winning.”

She said while the aftermath of her win has been an “emotional roller-coaster,” the result just means that “we’re a new party” under “a new leader.”

It won’t change the fact that the Tories will hold the governing New Democrats accountable, she said.

“I will work really hard and prove to them that they chose the right person to do this.”

Berthelette said as results came in Tuesday night and he led with only a few polls to report, excitement rang around the room in his election headquarters in Brandon.

“There was an excitement in the room that I haven’t seen in probably 20 years, and everybody was just on pins and needles waiting for the for the polls to come in,” he said.

“Even though we lost, we still won.”

That includes a strong foundation ahead of the 2027 election, he said, with volunteers who now know how things work. He said the party hasn’t been in this good of shape since the years of Gary Doer’s premiership.

He said he will go back to working as the executive assistant to NDP cabinet minister Glen Simard, who is also the Brandon East MLA, and that he’s “not really thinking about the next election yet.”

The next general election is scheduled for Oct. 5, 2027.

» alambert@brandonsun.com