Kinew’s comments may bring false hope

The storms that swept through Manitoba last week, and the widespread flooding that resulted, will likely end up being one of the most costly weather events in the province’s history.

Given that possibility, and the widespread damage that so many Manitobans have experienced, it was inevitable that questions would arise regarding the level and adequacy of financial assistance available for those who have suffered so much harm.

Several municipalities have experienced serious damage and have declared states of emergency. It will take time before the total amount those damages are quantified, but they will be eligible for reimbursement via disaster financial assistance.

For individuals and businesses, however, eligibility is far less certain, and the situation has become more confusing in light of comments by Premier Wab Kinew in the past few days.

According to Manitoba law, an expense is not eligible for disaster financial assistance if adequate insurance to cover that expense was available for purchase in the impacted region or community. Where does this leave those Manitobans who could have purchased overland flooding insurance, but decided not to?

Under the law as it currently exists, they would appear to be out of luck and ineligible for compensation. In the context of the overland flood damage that has happened across the province, however, Kinew has offered a reprieve for flood victims. He says that his government will be changing the law in order for those victims to be eligible for disaster financial assistance.

He told reporters “If you have somebody who’s lived in a community for eight or nine decades and they’ve never seen this kind of flooding, it’s reasonable to expect that folks in that area wouldn’t put up flood protection or they wouldn’t purchase overland flood insurance.”

He said that the government is “looking at ensuring this DFA program is going to be there for people so that no one in rural Manitoba gets left behind, and we’re not going to let the rules, as posted on the website, stand in the way of doing the right thing.”

The premier’s words may inspire hope, but there is reason to be concerned that it may engender false hope. That’s because, firstly, DFA programs in Canada are not intended to replace insurance, and are generally for uninsured events and basic essential costs. They seldom, if ever, result in total reimbursement.

Secondly, with damages from the storms projected to total hundreds of millions of dollars — potentially more than $1 billion — it is fair to ask if a province so deeply in debt as Manitoba, facing yet another large budget deficit, can afford to pay out such a huge amount of unbudgeted money. It would almost certainly deep-six any possibility of a balanced budget next year, as the government has promised.

Another factor to consider is that, contrary to Kinew’s claim, last week’s storm was not unprecedented. It is a known risk in Manitoba, particularly given the increasing frequency of such weather events. There have been several super-storms over the past several years, including one here in Brandon that caused extreme damage via overland flooding.

In fact, Brandonites were repeatedly assured they would receive disaster financial assistance to compensate for the damage they suffered due to that flooding, but that money never arrived.

Finally, Kinew’s pledge could also have the impact of causing Manitobans to risk refraining from purchasing overland flooding insurance, on the perhaps-mistaken assumption the government will always be there with compensation cheques. That would effectively make the province an insurer against a rising risk, creating a huge potential liability.

There is no doubt that Kinew sees Manitobans in need and wants to help, but this may be an instance of “good politics” trumping good policy. With a provincial election scheduled for next year, the premier has made a costly commitment that will be very difficult for his government to afford, let alone fulfill anytime soon.

Manitobans would be wise to temper their compensation expectations until more specifics regarding the government’s plan becomes available. It’s just an empty promise until the cheque arrives, if it ever does.