Province’s top statistician prods feds to hold 2016 census

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This article was published 17/05/2013 (4571 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

OTTAWA — Manitoba’s chief statistician is pushing Ottawa to ensure there is a 2016 census and to expand it to make up for deficiencies in the new National Household Survey.

Provincial statisticians will gather later this month for their annual meeting with Statistics Canada and Manitoba’s stats guru, Wilf Falk, plans to lead the charge on the agenda item discussing the 2016 census, saying there is a lot of talk about whether Ottawa will simply choose not to have any census that year at all.

Falk sent Statistics Canada a 10-page report with eight recommendations for the 2016 census.

“Point No. 1 is there should be a census,” said Falk.

The British North America Act of 1867 requires a census to be taken of the population once every 10 years in the years ending with the number one. It was not until 1970 that a nationwide census every five years became a requirement through a change to the Statistics Act.

The questions on the census each time are determined by cabinet with an order-in-council.

Falk said Ottawa may simply choose to do away with the 2016 census altogether by either changing the Statistics Act or issuing an order-in-council that there simply be no questions on the census. Statistics Canada officials refused an interview request about the subject, responding only with an emailed statement saying “a final decision on the 2016 census has not been made yet.”

A report produced by Statistics Canada looking at the possibilities for the 2016 census notes a consultation process found over 800 ways the census is used by governments at all levels and organizations outside the government. It made no specific recommendations although it noted there was no feasible way to change the methodology used in the census collection.

Industry Minister Christian Paradis’ office responded to questions with a written email statement.

“Our government is committed to collecting statistical data while protecting Canadians’ privacy. Statistics Canada conducts a review at the end of every census cycle in preparation for the next census. That review is currently underway for census 2016.”

Falk said it would be a bad decision not to do any census in 2016 because Canada and the provinces rely heavily on population counts for transfer payments and other funding decisions. Those payments could end up being wildly out of date if no specific population count is done for a decade.

Manitoba would like to see Ottawa revert back to a mandatory long-form census as well, but Falk said he doesn’t think that will happen.

But Falk said he thinks the government might choose not to do another National Household Survey.

In 2010 the Conservative government chose not to do a mandatory long-form census, deeming it too invasive. Instead it replaced it with the optional National Household Survey, which has a much lower accuracy level, particularly in communities under 25,000 people. One-third of Manitoba’s municipalities have no data published from the NHS because not enough people from those communities filled it out.

Falk said if Ottawa does away with the new survey and doesn’t reinstate the long-form version, perhaps it could at least add a few more questions to the short-form census, including about ethnicity, income levels and education, which can help guide the demand for social programs and distribute dollars for existing programs efficiently.

Other recommendations from Manitoba include getting rid of the threat of jail time for not filling out the census and timing the National Household Survey to be done at the same time as the short-form census. Falk said he thinks delaying it by one month contributed to lower response rates when people didn’t automatically connect the two.

mia.rabson@freepress.mb.ca