PM avoids byelection riding during 2-day Winnipeg visit

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This article was published 07/08/2024 (605 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

WINNIPEG — With less than six weeks to go before Elmwood-Transcona residents vote in a federal byelection, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau chose to stay away from the riding during a two-day visit to Winnipeg that ended Tuesday.

The Liberals are considered a long shot in the longtime NDP stronghold.

Trudeau visited some Folklorama pavilions Monday and attended a Black History Manitoba breakfast Tuesday. Later Tuesday, he was at Victoria General Hospital, posing for selfies with staff at a lunch sponsored by Winnipeg South Liberal MP Terry Duguid.

The PM didn’t make a speech or take questions from the media at the event but could be overheard thanking hospital workers for their service.

And that was the purpose of the event, Duguid said — a show of appreciation for employees’ hard work, particularly during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

All of the hospital’s staff were welcome, and more than 100 doctors, nurses, health-care aides and members of the facility’s administration showed up.

“I would’ve done this anyway, but the prime minister is in town and I thought it would be wonderful if he could meet the amazing staff here,” said the longtime Liberal MP, who plans to run again in the next federal election on or before Oct. 20, 2025.

Lunch included a burger, chips, a drink and ice cream topped off with thanks from the prime minister, said Duguid.

“We all know there’s challenges in our health-care system,” he told the Winnipeg Free Press. “They step up every day for us.”

Duguid said he expects Trudeau will return to Winnipeg ahead of the Sept. 16 Elmwood-Transcona byelection to fill the seat vacated by NDP MP Daniel Blaikie, who announced earlier this year he was resigning to work as an adviser to Premier Wab Kinew.

Ian MacIntyre, a retired teacher and union leader, is running for the federal Liberals. The Conservative candidate is Colin Reynolds and the NDP candidate is Leila Dance.

“The prime minister usually stops in on every byelection,” Duguid said. “I’m sure he would be doing that, but not on this trip.”

Veteran political observers said they weren’t surprised that the Liberal leader didn’t hold any events in Elmwood-Transcona.

“The Liberals are kind of a non-factor in that race,” said Probe Research Inc. principal Curtis Brown. “It’s an NDP-Conservative battle.”

University of Manitoba political studies professor emeritus Paul Thomas said the prime minster may have been asked to steer clear of the riding, “given the anti-Trudeau sentiments in the country.”

In 2021, the Liberals received just 14 per cent of the vote in that Winnipeg riding and Trudeau’s popularity has fallen since then, Thomas said.

“Maybe the prime minister’s advisers recommended he avoid any personal connection with what could be a humiliating showing for the Liberals — even if their candidate is a credible figure,” he said.

Brown, however, suggested it was odd that Trudeau didn’t make a token effort to set foot inside the riding.

The prime minister made a surprise appearance at Folklorama Monday night, paying visits to the Filipino pavilion at R.B. Russell Vocational School and the Punjab pavilion at the Punjab Cultural Centre in Winnipeg North, the riding held by Liberal Kevin Lamoureux.

Black History Manitoba marked Emancipation Day Tuesday with a breakfast at St. Norbert Community Centre in Winnipeg South, Duguid’s turf.

“I think it’s easier to go and show up, have your picture taken with people and have a pretty positive interaction, and it shows up on social media,” Brown said.

“He’s the sitting PM — that’s still a big deal for a lot of people, even if his popularity ratings are pretty low — depending on where he goes, which community he’s interacting with.

“If it’s people who voted Liberal in past and still have some affection for him, he’s still going to get a good reception. He went to Folklorama and probably somewhere a little friendlier. It’s not like he went knocking on doors in suburban Transcona. He probably wouldn’t have had such a warm reception where there aren’t a lot of Liberals.”

Trudeau — much like his Conservative counterpart Pierre Poilievre — often avoids questions from news reporters while on the campaign trail that may cast a negative light on his leadership, said Brown.

“There’s not a lot to gain for Justin Trudeau answering questions — it’s going to be a lot of questions like, ‘When are you going to resign?’” Brown said.

“It’s a sign of the times and shows where we’re at in terms of how people communicate — and where he’s at in terms of popularity.”

There have been “murmurings” of discontent with Trudeau’s leadership in the Liberal caucus, and he may have wanted to focus on shoring up support among his elected MPs in Winnipeg, Thomas said.

“He may have also wanted to be been seen interacting with ‘regular folks’ in a less-partisan setting, which brought him into contact with newer Canadians and generated some photo opportunities,” he said.

Duguid, the Liberals’ national campaign co-chair, said he is “100 per cent certain” Trudeau is staying on as leader.

“We have to work hard to earn the confidence of Canadians again,” he said. “I have every confidence that we will be able to do that.”

Recent polls, however, indicate the Conservatives are way out in front.

“In the last three elections, the Liberal party has been behind, often by a significant amount,” Duguid said. “When Canadians have to make that choice on what kind of country they want to live in, I believe they will make the right choice and go with our team again.”

» Winnipeg Free Press