BSD sees rise in student mobility

The Brandon School Division (BSD) has recorded another year of increased student mobility, with 2024–25 showing a greater net enrolment growth compared to the previous school year.

The division has begun tracking student movement more closely by month, uncovering new trends that could shape future staffing and budget decisions, Supt. Mathew Gustafson told the Sun last week.

According to data Gustafson presented to the board last week, the division’s overall enrolment grew by 324 students following Sept. 30 of last year, and by another 201 students in the four months that followed.

He said the growth that occurred after schools had already created class configurations and staffing plans for the next academic year, adding the division’s cumulative net mobility in 2024-25 was 55 students higher than in 2023–24, suggesting a continued upward trend in enrolment.

“By looking at mobility month by month, we found that our largest growth doesn’t always happen in September,” Gustafson said. “Some of the biggest increases are actually in October, at the semester change in January or February, and again in April or May.”

He said this month-by-month approach gives administrators a better understanding of when students are most likely to enter or leave the system and allows them to better predict future enrolment. This is particularly important because BSD sets its annual budget in March, months before much of the student movement occurs.

The division recorded 1,110 instances of students transferring into a new school during the 2024–25 school year, and 783 instances of students transferring out. While the trends are consistent with previous years, BSD is still working to understand why mobility peaks at certain times — especially in spring.

Several factors appear to be driving the changes, Gustafson said.

Immigration remains a major contributor, he said, with families moving to Brandon both from within Manitoba and from other provinces and countries.

“Housing also plays a significant role, as families renting or purchasing new homes often trigger moves within the city’s schools,” he said. “Where families may be renting and then have an opportunity to move or buy, that can be a major driver.”

Another possible factor behind the spring increases, Gustafson noted, could be families arriving from countries with different school calendars. “Often, families don’t want to move until their school year completes,” he said. “If their academic year ends in March, it makes sense that we see higher enrolment in April and May.”

BSD is now integrating housing-development data into its enrolment forecasting.

“By analyzing the number and density of new residential units, we estimate how many students each new development could add,” he said. “That modelling recently helped shape the Braecrest catchment change, where projected growth was redirected from Kirkcaldy Heights to George Fitton School to balance capacity. Early indications show those projections were accurate, with about 50 students already using the new bus route to George Fitton.”

Gustafson said the division’s continued growth will have financial implications. Because provincial funding is tied to the number of funded students, BSD expects an increase in funding next year — but not enough to fully cover the additional costs. “The provincial funding won’t cover the full cost of those students,” Gustafson said, adding that the local levy and property assessments will help make up the difference.

Gustafson emphasized that the division’s growing data set — now entering its third year — will be crucial for planning.

“With two years of consistent patterns and a third year underway, we can now start to make more reliable predictions,” he said. “It gives us more confidence to plan staffing, space, and budgets that reflect what’s actually happening in our schools.”

» aodutola@brandonsun.com

» X: @AbiolaOdutola