School division sees unusual fall student mobility

Brandon School Division saw unusual student movement patterns this fall while overall enrolment grew at a slower pace than in recent years, according to senior administration reports.

In September, 343 students moved to new schools while 221 left, resulting in 564 total moves within the division and a net gain of 122 students, compared with 571 total moves in the same month the previous year.

October, however, saw 142 students move in and 175 move out, producing a net loss of 33 students, down from 142 move-ins and 100 move-outs in 2024-25. November recorded 84 incoming and 80 outgoing students, yielding a modest net gain of four, compared to the 109 in and 65 out recorded the previous year. December had 49 students moving in and out, against nine during 2024-25.

Typically, the main growth happens in October, sometimes November, but this year, growth came earlier — in September — followed by a decrease in October and November, Supt. Mathew Gustafson told trustees while presenting the report during the Monday evening general board meeting.

“The negative mobility in October and November contrasts with previous years when those months usually recorded the largest enrolment increases,” Gustafson told the Sun on Tuesday.

“Several factors could contribute, including families moving to Brandon over the summer, later start dates for new students, or broader influences such as immigration patterns, provincial migration or birth rates from several years prior.”

He said some students who were scheduled to attend before November did not show up. “It’s difficult to pinpoint a single factor; multiple elements likely play a role.”

Despite the fluctuations, he said, the cumulative effect of enrolment from September through December remains strong.

The division enrolment continues to grow, but at a slower rate than the past three years, as annual increases exceeded 300 students, secretary-treasurer Denis Labossiere told the board.

“For the 2025-26 school year, enrolment increased by 77 students, or 0.8 per cent, bringing total headcount to 10,080 students,” he said. “After adjusting for kindergarten students to calculate full-time equivalent (FTE) enrolment, the division recorded 9,755 FTEs, an annual increase of 75.5.”

Labossiere said enrolment growth was 132 students, or 134 FTEs, below what was projected in the 2025-26 budget, which had anticipated an increase of 209 students, or 2.1 per cent.

Looking at longer-term trends, Labossiere said enrolment has grown by 1,042 students over the past five years and by 1,349 students over the past decade. Average annual growth was about 120 students in the five years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, compared to 256 students per year in the five years following, with a 10-year average increase of 152 students annually.

Gustafson said this indicates that while growth timing has shifted, the division is still experiencing a net increase in students.

“While the unusual mobility may influence enrolment projections for the 2026-27 school year, it is unlikely to affect provincial funding, as the division continues to see overall growth,” he said.

The slower pace of growth compared to the past three years, when annual increases exceeded 300 students, Gustafson said, could, however, provide some relief in terms of staffing and building capacity.

“Having growth in the 100-student range, rather than over 300, allows us to address capacity challenges more strategically,” he said.

He added that the division will continue to monitor mobility trends month by month to better understand changes and plan accordingly.

Gustafson said the division had its highest number of graduating students in June, and that high number of exits, combined with fewer kindergarten students entering the system, helps explain overall lower enrolment growth.

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