BSD projects continued enrolment growth

The Brandon School Division (BSD) is expected to continue growing over the next five years, with student enrolment projected to rise to between roughly 10,360 and 11,440 students by 2030.

The senior administration presented two different enrolment projection models, both based on historical growth trends within the division, to the school board last week.

One model used enrolment data from the past five years, reflecting more recent growth patterns, while the second relied on a 10-year average that the division’s research and evaluation analyst Johnny Dubois described as more “typical” and less influenced by recent spikes.

Currently, BSD serves just over 10,000 students.

Using a simple linear growth model, Dubois said, the five-year trend assumes the higher growth rates seen in recent years will continue, while the 10-year model reflects a slower, more moderate pace.

Applying those growth rates to current enrolment figures resulted in two projections. Under the slower 10-year growth rate, BSD enrolment would reach just over 10,360 students by 2030. Using the faster five-year trend, enrolment could climb to approximately 11,440 students over the same period, he said.

Dubois cautioned trustees that projections are inherently uncertain.

“Importantly, every projection is wrong,” he said. “A final enrolment figure falling anywhere between the two estimates would not be surprising.” He said that a key unknown is whether the division’s recent rapid growth represents a long-term shift or a temporary trend.

Despite the uncertainty, both models point to continued growth and not a decline.

enrolment increased this year, though at a slower pace than in recent years, secretary-treasurer Denis Labossiere told the trustees.

“The good news is BSD continues to grow,” Labossiere said. “Enrolment rose by 77 students, or 0.8 per cent, bringing the division total to 10,080 students. Over the past five years, BSD enrolment has increased by 1,042 students, while growth over the past decade totals more than 1,300 students.”

Labossiere said there is a contrast between pre- and post-COVID growth. Before the pandemic, average annual enrolment increases were about 120 students, compared to 256 students annually in the five years following COVID-19. The 10-year average increase stands at approximately 152 students per year, he said.

Based on historical trends and demographic data, BSD is projecting enrolment of 10,214 students for the 2026–27 school year, an increase of 134 students, or 1.3 per cent. Labossiere said the projection results in no change to the division’s budget assumptions from the previous year.

Accurately estimating enrolment is critical for budgeting and staffing decisions, Supt. Mathew Gustafson told the board.

“If we overestimate the enrolment, we place extra budgetary pressures on that can have an impact on the ratio,” Gustafson said. “If we underestimate, then that means we have a greater number of enrolment than we have staffing that we plan for, and that puts pressure on class size.”

Gustafson said the division currently has enough capacity to absorb the projected increase of 134 students while maintaining existing staffing ratios. He said some factors affected recent enrolment numbers, including a record number of graduates exiting the system last June and lower kindergarten entry levels.

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