Attracting AI to Manitoba would need strict rules, BU prof says

Manitoba’s push to attract artificial intelligence data centres will depend less on its cold-weather advantage but on strong environmental and Indigenous involvement, Brandon University assistant professor Jennifer Mateer told the Sun.

Mateer said Manitoba does have a “potential advantage” in cold-climate cooling, but cautioned against overstating it as a decisive edge for AI-driven data centre growth.

“Any policy framework for attracting AI data centres in Manitoba must include free, prior and informed consent processes for projects sited on or near Indigenous territories,” she said. “This means more than notification or consultation. Indigenous governments must have meaningful regulatory authority over environmental impacts, including water use, noise, and energy infrastructure.”

Another important policy would be to require transparent public reporting on energy use, water use, emissions, and cooling systems, she said.

“The EU already mandates this for data centres over 500 kilowatts, but compliance has been a real problem,” she said.

In the Netherlands, Mateer said, an Uptime Institute analysis found that only about two-thirds of data centres met the first EU reporting deadline, and of those that did, only 25 per cent included actual data on energy and water usage.

“Data centres should also be required to demonstrate they are adding or supporting new clean electricity, so they are not just drawing from Manitoba’s existing energy grid,” Mateer said in an interview. “This is very important since Manitoba Hydro’s own 2025 Integrated Resource Plan projects a shortfall in electricity capacity by the end of 2030 of up to 600 megawatts.”

A significant part of their plan to address this gap relies on the use of fossil fuels (specifically natural gas combustion turbines) and “attracting energy-intensive AI data centres without requiring them to bring new clean generation with them would directly worsen that shortfall and increase our reliance on fossil fuels, which is the opposite of the province’s stated climate goals.”

Beyond the pressures on the electrical grid and water use, there are also more indirect and cumulative effects worth considering, she said.

One is the broader risk of lock-in. Once major infrastructure is built, it shapes future policy choices, and if Manitoba commits to energy-intensive AI development without clear conditions attached, it may become more difficult to meet climate targets or to prioritize other public needs down the line, Mateer said.

She said Ireland has recently moved away from an effective ban on new data centre grid connections, but only under strict conditions.

The Irish government is also suggesting “Green Energy Parks,” which is where data centres would be located with renewable generation to reduce pressure on the national grid, she said.

Mateer said Singapore imposed a moratorium on new data centre development in 2019 after electricity demand from the sector reached “approximately seven per cent of national demand and was continuing to grow.”

When approvals resumed, she said, they came with strict conditions. Facilities were required to meet “very high efficiency standards,” secure “a significant portion of their energy from green sources” and demonstrate “overall system performance before being approved.”

“The important aspect of both of these examples is that neither nation is treating data centres as a standard industry,” she said. Instead, “development is treated as conditional because of its impacts on energy systems.”

That framing, she said, is particularly relevant for Manitoba. With Manitoba Hydro’s Integrated Resource Plan signalling that electricity demand could exceed supply within the next decade, she warned that “large new electricity loads shouldn’t be treated as neutral.”

Mateer said that if Manitoba chooses to attract AI infrastructure, it must require operators to add new clean energy capacity rather than simply draw from the existing grid. “If data centres are going to be part of Manitoba’s future, they need to be required to bring new clean energy into the system, not just draw from it.”

She contrasted this with Alberta’s approach, which she described as being more focused on attracting investment and competitiveness. In her view, sustainability is “framed as an incentive rather than a condition of approval.”

“That’s not a direction I would want to see for Manitoba,” she said, adding that the province does not need to compete in what she called a “race to the bottom” on cheap electricity.

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