COVID-19 outbreaks a sign of surging cases: Doctor

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This article was published 05/05/2022 (1400 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Manitoba is reporting more than a dozen COVID-19 outbreaks for the past week, but that doesn’t come as a surprise for a Brandon physician who is warning a surge in cases is likely among the population.

According to the weekly provincial COVID-19 surveillance released Thursday, from April 24-30, the province recorded 16 outbreaks, including 11 in long-term care facilities.

Long-term care and nursing homes usually have more accurate data because they have to track infections closely to keep residents and their families informed, said Dr. Diarmuid (Derry) Decter, a longtime physician at the Rosser Medical Clinic.

It is also a worrying sign that a surge in cases is beginning, as long-term care residents are more vulnerable to infection.

“The fact there are so many cases happening in long-term care is an indication things are winding up again,” he said. “How bad will it be? Hard to say. It depends how virulent this new variant is.”

The province also recorded 173 COVID-19 hospital admissions for the same time period — a drop compared to the 188 admissions reported in the previous week. The report also shows 12 people were admitted to ICU with COVID-19, and 14 deaths were reported.

The total number of COVID-19 deaths in Manitoba is now 1,819.

A drop in hospitalizations for now isn’t surprising, but because the latest variant is more infectious, he expects there will be more hospitalizations as the virus works its way through the population.

There are still plenty of unknowns with COVID, Decter said, as viruses mutate and develop into new variants by their very nature. What he has been told is the latest subvariant of omicron, called BA2.12.1, is not as lethal as previous ones, but it is highly infectious.

Currently, it is being tracked in the United States, and it is only a matter of time before it appears in Manitoba, if it already isn’t here, Decter said.

The province reported 1,042 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases during the week. However, public health officials have previously said the actual number of cases is likely higher than reported as results from rapid tests taken at home are not included. Most Manitobans do not have access to PCR testing.

Decter agreed cases are likely higher, stating the real numbers are anywhere from slightly higher than reported, to a lot higher. For example, he said if 800 people were tested and 100 per cent were positive, that is still 800 out of 1.4 million. There is really no way of knowing the true number of infections.

The high vaccine uptake has stopped the virus from spreading faster, Decter said. According to the report, 82.8 per cent of eligible Manitobans have been partially vaccinated, while 79.6 per cent have been fully vaccinated. However, Decter said immunity wanes over time, even for those who received two doses and a booster shot. That COVID vaccine regimen has a full strength for up to six months, then it fades without another booster shot.

Boosters should be made available to the public again in the near future, he said, or vaccinated people will become vulnerable to infection and drive cases up again.

“Without vaccines, it would be much worse right now even with a weaker subvariant,” he said. “It’s hard to guess accurately what is coming. It probably won’t be as bad as other surges, but there will still be a surge. We are running to stay in the same place.”

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