Doctors cautiously watching as COVID-19 subvariant surges

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This article was published 08/07/2022 (1327 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Doctors in Manitoba are not sounding the alarm over the COVID-19 omicron subvariants, but are watching with caution as cases surge in other parts of the country.

The BA.5 subvariant is in the province, but transmission and severe outcomes appear low for now. However, physicians are sure this will cause a spike in cases in the coming weeks, said Keir Johnson, Doctors Manitoba director of strategy and communications.

While not an epidemiologist on the transmissibility of the subvariants, he said the advocacy group is taking advice and data from the Ontario Science Table as rising cases fuel another wave in that province to determine future actions.

“Whatever happens in Ontario seems to precede what happens here within a few weeks,” he said. “We talk to physicians self-isolating and with emergency room doctors over patients who are presenting [symptoms]. While not definitive, it does help us keep our finger on the pulse of the COVID pandemic.”

In recent comments to the media, Ontario’s chief medical officer of health, Dr. Kieran Moore, said the province is in the midst of a seventh wave that is being driven by the BA.5 subvariant. Johnson said doctors in Manitoba are largely agreeing with the data that is coming out of Ontario and anticipate a surge in cases closer to the fall.

The latest Manitoba COVID-19 surveillance published on Thursday showed estimates suggesting the BA.5 subvariant accounts for about 10 per cent of all cases in the province.

While physicians wait to see what unfolds, Johnson said they are asking the public to be more cautious and help protect the already embattled health system by following established guidelines: handwashing, sanitizing, wearing masks whenever recommended, maintaining safe distances and when eligible, get the vaccine to keep one’s immunity strong. These guidelines can be followed while enjoying summer activities, he said.

One of the factors in this year’s potential wave is the number of people who have been vaccinated and received boosters. More people are protected, Johnson said, so there will be fewer virus vectors.

“We are not sure what this will look like, yet, but we don’t anticipate a sudden spike in cases for the short-term,” he said.

The latest COVID-19 surveillance showed as of July 2, 83.1 per cent of eligible Manitobans were fully vaccinated with two shots. About 55.2 per cent have received one booster shot.

Data from the Ontario Science Table already indicates that a third dose offers protection against severe sickness and highly recommends anyone who is eligible to get it as soon as possible. Even though the vaccine is less effective against infection by subvariants, the data said, it still provides protection against severe outcomes.

In previous comments, Manitoba health officials said they are working on another COVID vaccine campaign for the fall. Details have yet to be released, but have already stated they are expecting another wave as colder weather sets in.

Data from the Ontario Science Table can be found at https://bit.ly/3Is9Yow.

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