Federal NDP on rise again in Manitoba

WINNIPEG — The federal New Democratic Party under new leadership is seeing a resurgence in Winnipeg, and has jumped past the Conservatives in some suburban neighbourhoods, new polling data says.

A Winnipeg Free Press-Probe Research poll released this week found that Liberals have the support of 54 per cent of the voters surveyed in Winnipeg, down marginally from 55 per cent in March. Support for the NDP jumped to 16 per cent, up from 10 per cent in March.

The Conservative party has lost some ground in the city — 26 per cent of those surveyed said they’d vote for the party if an election “was held tomorrow,” down from 32 per cent last month, and the lowest percentage in more than two years.

Across Manitoba, NDP support jumped from eight per cent in March to 14 per cent. Conservatives were down four points from 39 per cent in March and Liberal support rose to 47 per cent from 46 per cent.

A shift in voter attitude was strongest in suburban Winnipeg neighbourhoods, where support for NDP Leader Avi Lewis and the party rose 14 per cent since March, and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and the Tories dropped 11 per cent.

Lewis was elected to lead the federal NDP in a landslide victory following a leadership convention held in Winnipeg in late March. He last visited Winnipeg in May, when he discussed his priorities with supporters, including protecting door-to-door postal service and nationwide publicly owned grocery stores.

“The NDP, in Winnipeg, especially, is actually sort of taking some of that Tory vote,” Mary Agnes Welch, a partner with Probe Research, said Thursday.

“It’s not really impacting the Liberal numbers. The NDP are stealing a little bit from that sort of populist cohort of voters.”

Women and younger adults were most likely to declare their new support for the NDP.

In rural and northern Manitoba, Conservatives remained on top with 50 per cent support. Liberals and NDP saw small gains, from 33 per cent to 35 per cent and five per cent to nine per cent, respectively.

Liberals continue to hold a significant advantage in Winnipeg, as they do across Canada, Welch noted.

“I don’t think we love Mark Carney instinctively in our hearts, but we respect and kind of admire his approach, and hope to God it works,” she said.

Leah Gazan, Winnipeg’s sole NDP MP (Winnipeg Centre), said the party’s focus on “bread and butter issues” has resonated with city residents.

“We just came out of a leadership race electing a dynamic, highly intelligent, charismatic leader with very clear moral clarity at a time when we really need it,” she said. “We are representing issues that really matter and are impacting people across Canada.”

The NDP lost two longtime orange ridings in the 2025 federal election: Elmwood-Transcona, which is now represented by Conservative MP Colin Reynolds, and Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, now represented by Liberal MP Rebecca Chartrand.

While the next federal election is likely a long way down the road — it must be held by Oct. 15, 2029 — University of Manitoba political science professor Christopher Adams said observing the shifts at the edges of cities can paint a picture of where the province and country are moving.

“What I look at in Manitoba for the polling results is what’s happening in the suburban areas,” he said. “Like Winnipeg South, (MP) Terry Duguid’s riding for the Liberals, now that is vulnerable to the Conservatives, if the Conservative support increases.”

Probe Research surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Manitobans between May 25 and June 8, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points 95 times out of 100.

» Winnipeg Free Press