Alberta NDP says referendum could leave Premier Smith battling internal divisions

EDMONTON – Alberta Opposition NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi says Premier Danielle Smith will be looking to rebuild trust with Albertans — and an angry political base — after foisting a divisive separatism debate upon the province.

In a vote Monday, Albertans emphatically rejected holding a binding referendum on separating from Canada. 

About three quarters of Albertans said yes to Confederation while the remainder said they wanted the province to hold a second, binding referendum on leaving.

Nenshi said Tuesday that Smith will have to face down disappointed separatism supporters within her United Conservative Party while trying to rebuild trust with the majority of Albertans who rejected secession.

“She’s created an impossible situation for herself,” Nenshi told reporters in Calgary. He has long accused Smith of calling the referendum to pander to her political base.

“I certainly wouldn’t want to be at that (UCP annual general meeting) coming up in November to deal with all of that division and anger,” Nenshi said.

However, he added, he will be reminding Albertans who is responsible for the referendum — and the state of health care and education in the province.

“The person who starts the fire waives the right to call the fire department.”

Smith has said she supports the province staying in Canada but was obligated to put the question to a direct vote because hundreds of thousands of Albertans signed petitions for and against staying in Confederation.

Jeff Rath of the separatist group the Alberta Prosperity Project has been a harsh critic of Smith and said she will face a reckoning within the UCP for her referendum. 

He said Monday night a majority of the party’s members are in favour of Alberta independence, and they have lost confidence in the premier.

“(Former party leader and premier) Jason Kenney, we’ve already kicked out. He’s no longer the leader because of what he did during COVID.

“Danielle,” he said, “is going to be running into the same thing.”

Even before Monday’s result, key figures in the separatist movement had called for Smith to be ousted as party leader for campaigning against them. 

A small number of constituency associations have gone so far as to call for a leadership review of the premier over it.

Lori Williams, a political scientist at Mount Royal University in Calgary, said the UCP is divided, and it looks like there will be a showdown.

“It’ll be interesting to see who wins, and whether the party or Danielle Smith get branded as separatist,” Williams said.

“(Smith is) at risk right now because she tried to please everybody, and it looks like the majority of Albertans are not pleased and don’t trust her, and trust is a hard thing to regain.”

Kenney, a co-founder of the UCP, has said separatists need to be expelled from the party, but party president Rob Smith, who is not related to the premier, has insisted that there will be no such Canadian loyalty test.

Colin Aitchison, a former UCP press secretary who now works as a managing director with public affairs firm Enterprise Canada, said he doesn’t see a guaranteed path to challenge the premier’s leadership.

“I don’t see the premier’s leadership being in jeopardy (after) yesterday’s vote,” he said.

For everyone in support of remaining in the country, including Danielle Smith, the vote is a relief, Aitchison added.

“That means that they can put this noise behind us and move forward.”

A former adviser to Smith said the premier has plenty to navigate after the vote, but a leadership review isn’t a clear and present danger.

“I do think that (Smith) has an uncanny ability to mend fences with people,” said Michaela Frey, also a former UCP legislature member.

Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas said he would like to see the party turn the page.

“We can now move on to the meat and potatoes of what the vast majority of us are interested in rather than being beholden to a very small niche within the UCP membership,” he told reporters Tuesday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 20, 2026.

— With files from Fakiha Baig and Jack Farrell in Edmonton, and Dayne Patterson in Calgary