Brandon East shaping up as intriguing battle

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This article was published 04/03/2016 (3828 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

“There are ambitious people who finally see (Brandon East) as in play for them in terms of being able to run for the (NDP) nomination.”

<*R><BIt-5>— Kelly Saunders, Brandon University

political scientist

Momentum in politics is a funny and often dangerous thing.

During the 1999 provincial election, Progressive Conservative candidates were hearing a consistent message on voters’ doorsteps. The overwhelming sentiment from voters was that their local representatives had done a good job, but that the leader at the time — Gary Filmon —wasn’t very popular.

In the most recent federal election, this attitude was even more pervasive as voters found comfort in a campaign best summarized by its two catch phrases “Anything but Conservative,” and “Anyone but (Stephen) Harper.” Again, the feeling wasn’t so much directed at the rank and file members of the party, but its leader, who the public had grown weary of.

In less than seven weeks, Manitobans will go to the polls and elect a government, and comments from NDP MLA Dave Gaudreau reinforce some of those same attitudes amongst voters.

During an NDP caucus meeting last week, Gaudreau told Premier Greg Selinger that “I’m sorry to say it, Greg, but people hate you,” according to a source in the Winnipeg Free Press.

Gaudreau went on to say that voters aren’t displeased with him, and he’s trying to convince them that they aren’t voting for the leader, but it’s not working.

In a day and age when political leaders have become so integral to campaigns, it’s often the foot soldiers who are the causalities.

Just as the Conservatives were doomed by a decade of frosty interactions from Harper, Liberals were buoyed by the optimism of Trudeau-mania.

As attitudes and opinions about leaders devolve over time, as in the case of Harper, local politicians often distance themselves from that source of contempt.

In Westman, however, it will be a challenge for the two most vulnerable NDP incumbents — Drew Caldwell in Brandon East and Ron Kostyshyn in Swan River — to create separation from their boss.

The NDP’s leadership convention in 2015 ensured Caldwell and Kostyshyn were indelibly linked to their leader.

Both Caldwell and Kostyshyn supported Selinger’s bid to stay on as leader of the party after five cabinet ministers resigned due to their belief Selinger could no longer lead the party.

Caldwell accounted for 13 delegate votes, while Kostyshyn had 22. Selinger won by a mere 33 votes over Theresa Oswald on the second ballot.

Manitoba’s third NDP incumbent, Dauphin’s Stan Struthers, supported Oswald’s run for leader. While Struthers isn’t running in this election it will be easier for Dauphin’s NDP candidate Darcy Scheller to distance herself from leadership.

More problematic for Brandon’s local representative, however, is that the internal strife that created a tipping point for the dislike of the premier is reflected at the constituency level.

Many of Caldwell’s loyal supporters didn’t agree with his decision to back Selinger. Some saw it as an opportunity for the party to refresh ahead of a provincial election, offering a different vision while simultaneously increasing the odds of another mandate.

Caldwell resisted those calls to support Oswald.

Come election day, Caldwell will face two strong candidates — Liberal Vanessa Hamilton and PC Len Isleifson.

A Probe Research poll in December had Isleifson’s PCs and Hamilton’s Liberals in a near dead heat with 41 per cent and 38 per cent of decided voters in the constituency. Caldwell trailed at 18 per cent.

While both candidates have municipal experience and provide formidable opposition for the longtime MLA, Caldwell’s greatest challenge may come from within.

As reported in Thursday’s edition of the Brandon Sun, Brandon University political scientist Kelly Saunders said there are “ambitious people” who finally see an opportunity to carry the NDP banner in Brandon East.

Those people will have to decide whether this election represents their best chance to see their name on a ballot in the future.

Brandon East has voted NDP since its inception in 1969. In nearly five decades only two MLAs have occupied the seat — Caldwell and Len Evans.

During that same time, there have been NDP faithful who talked privately about their desire to run in the seat. While some of those people have moved on to pursue political aspirations in other areas, others remain and new members have created a new wave of aspiring candidates.

Those supporters face a decision this election.

A choice about whether it’s politically and personally advantageous to do everything they can to re-elect Caldwell and wait patiently for their turn to run or whether challenging a Liberal or PC MLA four years from now will expedite the process.

It’s just one more reason why Brandon East will be one of the more intriguing battles in the upcoming provincial election.