Stefanson may be running out of time

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This article was published 15/06/2023 (1084 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

“People are still getting to know Premier (Heather) Stefanson. She’s not the in-your-face type of leader. She takes a humble approach but a firm approach to leadership. As people get to know Premier Stefanson, they’ll grow to like her, for sure.”

— Deputy Premier and Spruce Woods MLA Cliff Cullen

Some things are better left unsaid.

Particularly when the news of the day suggests the polar opposite.

The results of a new poll by Angus Reid this week — conducted in May and early June — suggests that the NDP continues to be the party of choice for a majority of Manitobans going into the October provincial election.

According to the numbers, 44 per cent of Manitoba voters generally plan to vote for Wab Kinew’s New Democrats, compared with 39 per cent of Manitobans for the Progressive Conservatives. The ailing Liberals came up a distant third at 10 per cent.

As CBC noted on Wednesday, the Angus Reid poll results were fairly close to those of a Probe Research poll conducted in March, which gave the NDP a six-point lead over the PCs.

Unsurprisingly, voter intent was strongest in Winnipeg, where 54 per cent of respondents claimed support for the NDP, with the Tories garnering only 29 per cent in the city. While the party of Heather Stefanson enjoys 56 per cent support outside of the Perimeter Highway, it’s seat-rich Fortress Winnipeg where the PCs have to win to retain governance of the province.

But the news is even worse for the governing party. On nearly every single issue that Angus Reid asked participants to assess, the Tories were given failing grades. On poverty and homelessness, Tory performance was 79 per cent very poor to poor.

On street crime and public safety, again 79 per cent of respondents said the PCs were doing a poor to very poor job — and this is the party that has been pushing a law-and-order election campaign for the last several months.

They scored similar numbers on drug use and the opioid crisis, as well as on Manitobans’ experiences with cost of living and inflation, with 76 and 79 per cent of participants giving negative reviews.

And perhaps worst of all for a province led by a former health minister was the PC record on health care, with 81 per cent of respondents offering a negative appraisal. The Angus Reid poll also noted that respondents gave Stefanson a 66 per cent disapproval rating.

These are not good numbers for the Stefanson government, and it’s fair to say that Manitobans know a problem when they see it. So why is Deputy Premier Cliff Cullen trying to tell us to ignore the evidence in front of us, and believe that up is down and night is day?

Without question, Cullen is Stefanson’s must trusted ally in government, so it goes without saying that he would be loyal to the end to his friend and colleague. He claimed that her low approval rating is a function of voter unfamiliarity with the premier, but Cullen’s statement came across as jarringly inaccurate.

Stefanson has been a member of the Manitoba legislature for nearly 23 years, after first being elected in 2000 in a byelection in Tuxedo, where she replaced former PC premier Gary Filmon. She has had stints as minister of justice and attorney general, minister of families, deputy premier, and as said before, was in charge of the health portfolio under Brian Pallister.

She is Tory royalty in this province, if there is such a thing, and has been around long enough for Manitobans to get to know her fairly well. And if they haven’t — if they don’t know the warm and fuzzy yet no-nonsense leader Cullen claims her to be over the last two years — Manitobans cannot be faulted for that.

After all, aside from her years in Opposition and in government, she was chosen by the Tories as party leader and premier in the fall of 2021. How long exactly does she need to leave a good impression?

It has become clear that Stefanson has not been able to change party fortunes following the Pallister years.

And there is precious little time for Stefanson to turn this thing around, barring some large-scale public relations disaster for Kinew.

Perhaps her one saving grace is that Kinew is nearly as unpopular as she is, having garnered a 51 per cent unfavourable rating himself. That doesn’t say much for the leadership candidates Manitobans are being asked to choose between, really.

But for voters to make the best of the choices available to us, we need to avoid Cullen’s political blinkers.