Being tough on crime tough for PCs to resist

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 21/07/2023 (1048 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

“As violent crime continues to rise across the province, I want Manitobans to know that our government says, ‘enough is enough,’ all individuals and families deserve to feel safe. It’s fundamental to a strong, healthy and growing province.”

— Premier Heather Stefanson, November 2022

“Our government is committed to improving public safety by ensuring the justice system has the resources needed to provide a timely and consistent response to violent crime. This increased support for prosecutions is about going after illegal guns and targeting organized crime that is causing fear in communities and victimizing Manitobans.”

— Justice Minister Kelvin Goertzen, February 2023

“Our government will always defend — not defund — the police.”

— Premier Heather Stefanson, July 6, 2023

A recent poll conducted by Probe Research at the behest of the Association of Manitoba Municipalities suggested this week that 56 per cent of Manitoba respondents said they felt less safe compared to three years ago, while 39 per cent said they perceived no change in safety.

Another five per cent said they felt even safer.

As reported by our sister paper, the Winnipeg Free Press, the Winnipeg-based research firm polled 1,000 adult residents between May 31 and June 13 — 600 in Winnipeg and 400 in rural or northern Manitoba — using human phone operators and automated phone calls.

Women were more likely than men to tell the pollsters they feel less safe, at 62 per cent compared to 50 per cent. And Winnipeggers and people from southern communities were more likely than rural residents and northern Manitobans to perceive their safety as worse, at 60 per cent and 62 per cent, respectively, compared to 45 per cent in the North and rural areas.

And based upon partisan leanings, 65 per cent of Progressive Conservative supporters polled said they feel less safe today than in 2020, compared to 49 per cent of NDP supporters and 53 per cent of Liberal supporters.

Curiously, this poll came out the same day that Manitoba Justice Minister Kelvin Goertzen announced an additional $13.7 million in funding for municipal policing. That’s one heck of a useful coincidence for the Progressive Conservatives, who have been campaigning on crime and justice issues as a means for re-election this fall.

While we don’t really take issue with Probe Research’s methods, one of the problems with this kind of poll is that responses are based on feelings rather than actual crime statistics. And feelings have been awfully raw over the last few years, in the wake of the pandemic.

The cost of everything from rent and gas to food and mortgages have gone up significantly thanks to inflationary pressures. We have heard repeatedly about the war in Ukraine, and the growing possibility of the use of nuclear weapons by the Russians in response.

Given the tone and rhetoric employed by the governing Progressive Conservatives in the lead up to the 2023 provincial election this fall, as noted above, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Manitobans feel less safe and secure in their home province.

But to be fair, there are other, more material reasons that the Tories have gained traction with their political “tough on crime” messaging.

In February of this year, CTV and other media wrote of high rural crime rates reported in northern Manitoba, based on Statistics Canada data from 2021. And in May, the CBC reported that the violent crime rate in Winnipeg was at its highest since 2009, with the number of violent crimes, including assaults, homicides and kidnappings, nearly 24 per cent higher in 2022 than the five-year average.

“This year we’ve really seen a notable increase year over year,” said David Bowman, a data analyst for the Winnipeg Police Service.

Based on the Stats Canada data from 2021, Manitoba had the second-highest crime severity among Canadian provinces, with Saskatchewan leading the pack.

The situation in Brandon is less clear. Last August, former Brandon Police Service Chief Wayne Balcaen said that with the removal of pandemic restrictions that had deterred criminals, the resulting rise in non-violent crime was still in line with pre-pandemic levels.

Brandon-specific numbers showed the overall crime severity index for the city, including violent crime, dipped to 112.65 in 2021 compared to 114.57 (1.68 per cent) in 2020. That 2020 mark was itself a drop of 11.71 per cent from the previous year.

“I think we’re going to see these numbers slowly correct over the next year or two, depending on where we’re at pandemic-wise,” Balcaen said at the time.

However, it’s also worth noting that according to RCMP monthly crime statistics for May 2023, calls for service were up by 26 per cent in rural Manitoba between May 2022 and May 2023, with calls increasing from 3,872 to 5,366 in the West District — a rise of 39 per cent. About 41 per cent of those calls involved crimes against persons, and 18 per cent involved drug enforcement.

Many of these numbers are a bit dated, and we await new data in the coming month on crime severity from Statistics Canada. It’s also worth noting that Canada remains among the top 12 safest countries in the world.

But based on the fact that the Tories have narrowed the gap between themselves and the New Democrats, who have maintained the lead in the opinion polls, government messaging may be finding fertile ground. As such, we can expect Stefanson government to double down on the crime and punishment aspects of their re-election gambit.