NDP win in Tuxedo a sign of the times

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 20/06/2024 (650 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

“Tuxedo now voting for the NDP. Congrats to Carla Compton. A complete repudiation of the @MBPCcaucus and their 7 year dismantling of healthcare and education. With ‘parental rights,’ and ‘won’t search the landfill’ they are in the running for the most vile PC party in Canada.”

— Post on X by John Finch, former public servant and educator

“Quite the #mbpoli result tonight. It validates what we’ve seen in our @proberesearch polling for some time — no matter where you live in Winnipeg, you (or your neighbour) would vote for the NDP. I didn’t expect Tuxedo, of all places, to be a spot where you might say that.”

— X post by Curtis Brown, Probe Research

Much will be made this week over the loss of Tuxedo by Manitoba’s Progressive Conservatives on Tuesday night to the governing NDP. The words “disaster” and “historic” have already been bandied about by the talking heads in Winnipeg.

And they’re right to do so, for the optics of the Manitoba Tories losing their once-safest seat to Wab Kinew’s ongoing orange wave are rather startling. But let’s be honest, this was not unexpected.

As most readers by now will know, rookie NDP candidate Carla Compton — a nurse by trade — pulled off what no other political candidate has been able to do in the constituency’s history, becoming the first non-Progressive Conservative MLA to represent Tuxedo since the electoral district’s inception in 1981.

With a margin of more than 600 votes above PC candidate Lawrence Pinsky, that victory on Tuesday night leaves the Tories drowning their sorrows with 20 seats remaining in the 57-seat Manitoba legislature, and Wab Kinew’s government with 35. The Liberal Party, which saw its share of the byelection vote drop precipitously on Tuesday night, remains at one seat — and losing ever more relevance as a political entity.

It’s quite clear that Compton and her election team worked hard to get out the vote, and that the volunteer energy was lacking in the PC camp. It’s hard to be upbeat about your electoral chances in a provincial byelection when the party brass have seemingly lost their way and the Tory ship remains rudderless. A leadership race is not expected until sometime next year, and to date no one has stepped up to run.

But as much as Compton should enjoy her win, Kinew is not right to discount the anger felt by Progressive Conservative voters in Tuxedo who failed to show up to support their candidate. Voter dissatisfaction was a real factor here. It’s noteworthy that Compton managed 3,777 votes on June 18, only 77 more than former Tuxedo NDP candidate Larissa Ashdown managed against former Manitoba premier Heather Stefanson eight months ago.

That Stefanson so narrowly kept her own seat during the 2023 Manitoba general election — winning by a mere 268 votes — is a testament to the fact that voters in the once true-blue district were ready to blame her and her party for not only poor governance, but also running a horrific re-election campaign.

With a voter turnout of only 45.62 per cent for the Tuesday byelection — compared with 59.86 last October — Tory voters were more prepared to stay home than turn up to vote. The NDP were motivated to win.

That Wab Kinew can seemingly do no wrong at this point — particularly in Fortress Winnipeg — is not because of anything that the NDP have particularly accomplished over the last eight months. For one thing, health care is still a mess in this province, and the “mission accomplished” announcement in Carberry last month for the reopening of that community’s emergency room was a little too quick for its own good.

But the tone coming from the NDP has been one of conciliation and working together for a better province. And it’s resonating.

So too do actions often speak louder than words. For the Kinew government to get licence approvals to search the Prairie Green landfill this month for the remains of two victims of an admitted serial killer makes good on a campaign promise that directly opposed Heather Stefanson’s tactless comments and lack of compassion during last year’s election campaign.

It certainly did no harm to Compton’s chances in Tuxedo, where voter intentions are seemingly less true blue than before.

Like most byelections, it’s rather easy for pundits to use the results as signposts for a party in trouble — or in Kinew’s case, a party flexing its newfound muscles. Had a PC party leader with a clear — and less awful — campaign run in Tuxedo, the outcome might well have been different. We will never know.

Nevertheless, we can take one honest truth away from Tuesday night. The results were an ugly loss for a party that deserved to lose.

Until they manage to find their way back to relevance with a clear and optimistic view for the province — and the shine on Wab Kinew’s government inevitably dulls — the PCs will be stuck on the outside looking in.

» Matt Goerzen, editor