Policy could cause more problems than it cures

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This article was published 16/11/2024 (501 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It’s a calculation that, given the complexity of a nation as large and diverse as Canada, requires a high degree of precision. Whether the Trudeau government is capable of acting with such precision remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the strength our economy and the viability of our health-care and education systems are at stake.

Late last month, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller revealed his government’s plan to reduce the projected number of new permanent residents in Canada from 485,000 this year to 395,000 next year. The targets will further drop to 380,000 in 2026 and to 365,000 in 2027. Those numbers are significantly lower than the government’s previous quota of approximately 500,000 in each of 2025 and 2026.

More than 40 per cent of new permanent residents in 2025 will be drawn from the thousands of temporary residents already living in Canada. Miller’s plan also focuses on bringing more skilled workers into Canada, drawing more than 60 per cent of new permanent residents from the economic stream of applicants.

Under the previous immigration levels, Canada’s population grew by approximately 1.3 million last year, almost entirely due to immigration. Under the new immigration plan, on the other hand, the nation’s population is projected to shrink by 0.2 per cent over the next two years. As a result, the government projects that the plan will “reduce the housing supply gap by approximately 670,000 units” by 2027.

While the new target levels may very well reduce pressure on our housing market, as well as the nation’s health-care and education systems, there is also a palpable level of concern throughout the country, in rural Canada particularly, that the new levels could cause more problems than they solve.

For example, it was reported in this newspaper yesterday that Manitoba Pork Council general manager Cam Dahl believes the government should consider that labour demands in rural areas differ greatly from Canada’s largest urban centres.

“Policies that may be effective in Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver do not necessarily work for Neepawa, Brandon and rural Manitoba,” Dahl contends.

He adds that “The issues in those larger urban areas are very different from those we face here in Manitoba, so we believe the policy shouldn’t apply uniformly across all regions.”

Similarly, it was reported on Thursday that the Conference Board of Canada projects that the government’s new immigration levels will limit Winnipeg’s population growth to just one per cent next year in 2025, after growth rates of 2.5 per cent in 2023 and this year.

In its latest economic outlook, the board projects that the new immigration limits, combined with Manitoba’s multi-year experience of losing residents to other provinces, will hinder Winnipeg’s population growth.

Its latest economic outlook says that “Retaining newcomers has been a persistent challenge for Winnipeg over the past several decades. This trend is unlikely to change over the next few years, as many immigrants choose to relocate to cities with bigger labour markets and more attractions.”

In Alberta, many businesses are suffering from labour shortages, especially in rural Alberta communities. Mark von Schellwitz, the vice-president of Western Canada for Restaurants Canada, told the CBC that “an increasing number of restaurants have been using immigrants, coming in through various programs, to help supplement their staff … Without them, they wouldn’t be able to run their restaurant.”

In Newfoundland and Labrador, experts argue that high immigration levels are necessary to counteract the economic impact of an aging population that is currently experiencing more deaths than births.

The province’s immigration minister, Sarah Stoodley, says that “It’s not sustainable for Newfoundland and Labrador to have to withstand those kinds of cuts.”

In a country as large and diverse as Canada, a “one-size-fits-all” government policy aimed at fixing an issue often causes more problems than it cures.

The immigration, temporary foreign worker and international student levels over the past few years are widely blamed for causing strain for the national housing market, and for both our health-care and education systems. There is a legitimate and widespread concern, however, that the reduced immigration target numbers may cause labour shortages throughout the country, especially in rural centres.

The federal government is attempting to strike a difficult balance. Should it fail to achieve that objective, and it becomes apparent that rural Canadian communities are suffering because of the lower immigration quotas, the government must be poised to quickly address the issue.

Otherwise, it will simply have replaced one problem with another.