A bad idea for Canada, America and Trump

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 09/01/2025 (450 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It may have begun as an ill-timed joke between politicians, but this is no laughing matter.

In November, U.S. president-elect Donald Trump announced he would impose a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian and Mexican imports immediately after his inauguration unless the two countries improve security along their borders with America.

Days later, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with Trump to discuss the tariff issue, the president-elect suggested that Canada become the next U.S. state. He then trolled Trudeau on social media, calling him the “governor” of the “great state of Canada.”

On Monday, after Trudeau announced his forthcoming resignation as PM and Liberal Party leader, Trump again took to social media, saying that “many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st state.” He followed that up on Tuesday, telling reporters that Canada should join the U.S., and that he would use “economic force” to merge the two countries.

“You get rid of that artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like, and it would also be much better for national security,” he said, “and don’t forget, we basically protect Canada.”

Trudeau immediately responded that “There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States.” Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre jumped in, saying that “Canada will never be the 51st state. Period.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford told Fox News that Canada “is not for sale.”

If that’s not enough, a public opinion poll conducted by Leger Marketing last month found that 82 per cent of Canadians oppose Canada becoming the 51st state of the United States, with just 13 per cent in favour. Causing economic mayhem in order to force the merger will only harden Canadians’ opposition to the idea.

Canadians’ response to Trump could not be clearer: Back off and be quiet. We have no interest in being America’s 51st state.

If that isn’t enough to cause Trump to stand down, there are some facts he should consider. First, he claimed on Tuesday that Canada produces no products that America needs; no cars, no lumber, no dairy products. The reality, however, is that the U.S. needs our oil, electricity, fertilizer, beef and pork, and a wide range of our food products. Beyond that, Canada has abundant reserves of freshwater and critical minerals, both of which the U.S. desperately requires.

Poisoning America’s relationship with Canada puts America’s affordable access to all those goods and commodities at risk.

Second, Trump claims America has a $200-billion annual trade deficit with Canada, but the U.S. government says the number for 2023 was only $41 billion, and that’s only because we shipped $177 billion in energy to the U.S. Remove that number from the trade deficit/surplus calculation and America is actually running a $136-billion trade surplus — not a deficit — in its trading relationship with Canada.

Third, the path to Canada voluntarily becoming part of America would face enormous, time-consuming legal obstacles, beginning with the fact that a Canada-U.S. merger would likely require an amendment to the Canadian Constitution Act of 1982.

Such an amendment would require the consent of both the House of Commons and Senate, as well as two-thirds of Canada’s provinces having, in total, at least 50 per cent of Canada’s population. That is a virtually insurmountable hurdle.

Fourth, the unique interests of Quebec in any merger negotiations are also relevant. It is doubtful that the province would be willing to compromise its status as a “distinct society” by joining America. Without Quebec’s consent, it is unlikely that a proposed Canada-U.S. merger could satisfy the population threshold requirement for a constitutional amendment approving such a merger.

Fifth, there is also the issue of Canada’s many treaty obligations to its Indigenous peoples. Some may argue that the treaties, with all their rights and obligations, would continue after a Canada-U.S. merger. There is a more persuasive argument, however, that the treaties would become null and void, with full control over the affected lands — representing a substantial portion of Canada’s land mass — reverting to the relevant First Nations.

Finally, there is the likelihood that having Canada join the U.S. would severely hurt the electoral interests of Trump’s Republican Party. It would give Canada more than 50 seats in the House of Representatives, the vast majority of which would be held by Democrats. That would likely guarantee a Democrat majority in Congress for years to come. Beyond that, Canada would also have more than 50 electoral college votes, virtually guaranteeing the election of a Democrat as president in future presidential elections.

If Trump considers all of those facts, he will realize that the idea of a forced Canada-U.S. union is bad for Canada, bad for America, and bad for Trump himself.