Brandon vulnerable to new immigration levels

The Government of Canada has lowered the number of new residents, students and temporary workers that will be permitted to enter the country over the next three years. That change is likely to have an impact on the economies of communities across the country, including Brandon.

After several years of increased immigration levels in order to address an aging workforce and post-pandemic labour shortages — more than 483,000 were admitted into Canada in 2024 — the lower target levels appear to reflect the conclusion that the higher admission levels may have been larger than necessary.

The new strategy calls for a cut in overall permanent resident admissions from 395,000 last year to 380,000 this year and 365,000 next year.

The federal government says the lower limits are intended to reduce the unemployment rate, address the nationwide housing shortage and affordability issues, and also ease the strain on the nation’s health-care and education systems.

The new rules will also change immigration criteria, by preferring skilled workers with a focus on critical sectors, such as health care and skilled trades, those who speak French and those who are already in Canada as students and workers.

Under the new plan, the quota for economic immigrants such as skilled workers increases to 239,800 admissions this year and to 244,700 in both 2027 and 2028.

On the other hand, the number of temporary workers to be admitted has been cut from 367,750 last year to just 230,000 this year. For 2027 and 2028, the number admitted will be even lower, at 220,000 annually.

The cuts are even more stark for international students. A total of 437,000 new student visas were issued last year, but the new plan slashes the number to just 155,000 this year and 150,000 for each of 2027 and 2028.

From one perspective, it can be argued that all those changes — all those cuts — represent an implicit admission that the higher immigration levels of previous years may have caused as many, if not more, problems than they were intended to solve.

From another perspective, however, it can be just as strenuously argued that the new, lower levels represent an overreaction by the federal government to a problem that was largely occurring in just one region of the country, and that the new quotas will inevitably cause a range of new problems.

That may already be the case here in Brandon, and the situation could worsen in the coming months.

The reduced number of international student visas has caused a huge drop in tuition revenue for both Assiniboine College and Brandon University, and has also taken millions of dollars out of the local economy.

Beyond that, numerous Westman businesses, as well as the region’s health-care sector, rely heavily upon foreign workers. They could face dire labour shortages if ongoing access to those workers is curtailed in any way, or if our region is forced to compete against other “high demand” areas of the country for those workers.

To underscore the seriousness of the issue, given the significant immigration numbers that Brandon has experienced over the past two decades, it is conceivable that the city would have actually suffered a population decline during that time if not for the large number of newcomers who have chosen to make our city their home.

The federal government insists that the new immigration levels are designed to better match immigration levels and immigrant attributes with the needs of the Canadian economy.

The problem, however, is that matching immigration targets with perceived labour market demands is an inexact science at the best of times, made even more challenging by the both size of Canada and the diversity of its population.

The new, lower immigration levels may mollify the growing anti-immigration sentiment chorus in our society, but it would be wise to remember that Brandon’s economy — and, increasing, its society — relies upon a steady and reliable flow of newcomers.

If the new federal numbers are too low or too restrictive in their admission criteria, we will be among the first communities to feel the consequences.