Liberals on the threshold of a majority government

Longtime Conservative Party MP Marilyn Gladu announced yesterday morning that she is crossing the floor to become a member of the Liberal Party caucus. Her defection gives the Liberals 171 seats in the House of Commons, just one seat short of a majority.

The Liberals are expected to cross that threshold on Monday, when byelections will be held in three ridings. The contest in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne is expected to be very close between the Liberal and Bloc Québécois candidates, but the Liberals are widely expected to win in the Ontario ridings of Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale. Wins in the latter two ridings would give the Liberals a majority — enabling the government to enact its agenda over the next three years without needing the support of other parties — while a sweep of all three would give them additional breathing room.

Gladu is the fifth opposition MP to cross to the Liberals since October of last year. Matt Jeneroux, Chris d’Entremont and Michael Ma previously left the Conservative caucus, while Lori Idlout switched from the NDP. Of the five, however, Gladu stands out. She was candidate for the Conservative Party leadership in 2020 and was widely perceived as a staunch, true-blue Conservative. The fact that she believes she can fit within the more centrist Liberal caucus is remarkable, and may signal to other Tory caucus members that they too could be comfortable as part of Mark Carney’s Liberal government.

In fact, Ottawa media is awash with rumours and speculation that as many as 10 additional Conservative MPs are also considering switching to the Liberals sometime soon. If that is even partially true — if even only a few more Tory MPs bolt for the Liberals — it will deal a serious blow to Pierre Poilievre’s ability to remain as Conservative leader. It will also lend additional weight to questions that many Canadians are already asking.

At the top of the list is whether it is legal for MPs to switch parties, and whether voters have any rights in such instances. The answers to each question are clear. There is no law or parliamentary convention that prohibits floor-crossing, and it has occurred throughout Canada’s history. It may appear unfair to voters when they elect one party’s candidate, and then see that person later switch to a different party those voters did not support in the election, but there is no obligation for the MP to resign and seek re-election as the candidate for his or her new party.

Gladu no doubt relies on that point now, but she appeared to have a different opinion three months ago, when she said that she believed MPs who cross the floor to join another party should be required to resign and trigger a byelection. She then supported a petition by another Tory MP that called for the Parliament of Canada Act to be amended in order to require floor-crossers to resign. Now that Gladu is a member of the Liberal caucus, however, her opinion on the “forced resignation” issue appears to have changed.

That will offend many voters, but so does the fact that the Carney Liberals are about to form a majority government despite not being given a majority in last year’s election. Many regard that as contrary to the will of the nation’s voters, and point to the fact that this has apparently never happened before in Canadian federal politics. Those opinions are understandable, and forming a majority government through floor-crossings may be unprecedented, but such an outcome is both legal and consistent with the foundational principles of Canada’s parliamentary democracy. Under those principles, MPs are free to associate with whichever other MPs they choose to and are free to change their alliances whenever they wish, without any obligation to resign after doing so.

If you disagree, you are not alone. Recent public opinion polls show that a significant percentage of Canadians are uncomfortable with Carney’s Liberals winning a majority by poaching opposition MPs. That may be the case, but the Liberals are following the rules. If voters are frustrated, there is one more question they should be asking: why are so many MPs leaving the Conservative caucus?