Monster of a question designed to confuse

What’s in a question? In the case of mayhem that surrounds the Alberta separatist movement, plenty.

Faced with an intractable political crisis, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has decided to include a question on separation as part of a 10-question, omnibus referendum ballot this fall that will probe Albertans on a broad range of issues.

However, the question on independence Smith wants to include is a true Frankenstein’s monster of a ballot proposition.

“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”

Will the question have simple “yes” and “no” options? And if so, what does an affirmative vote mean? That Alberta should remain in Canada, or should it launch a legally precarious process to remove Alberta? Is it an either/or? A neither/nor?

At this point, nobody knows exactly how the question will play out, or what the result could end up being. The only clear conclusion now is that Smith has enraged people on both sides of the separation debate and in so doing, has left the government of Alberta in a profoundly precarious condition.

Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi accused Smith of starting a political wildfire she now “has no idea how to control.”

Calgary Liberal MP Corey Hogan said a “baffling, referendum-on-a-referendum question” in the omnibus vote this fall would “add another layer of confusion. It will divide. It will distract. It will damage.”

Jeff Rath, the lawyer who represents the Stay Free Alberta group that launched the pro-independence petition, warned Smith she was facing the ruination of her party. “She’s just alienated the most hardcore portion of her base … (and) created an unstoppable political force in the province of Alberta that will be rallying against her.”

One likely result? That businesses looking at investing in Alberta will sit on the sidelines — perhaps for years —until stability returns.

The almost universal condemnation of the muddled referendum question — including equal measures of vitriol on both the pro- and anti-separation forces — is hardly surprising when you consider that Smith has tried to play both sides of this divisive debate.

On the one hand, Smith amended legislation to reduce the number of signatures needed to trigger a referendum, which directly aided separatists. She also leapt to the defence of the independence campaign when a judge recently determined that a referendum on separation was unconstitutional because there had been no effort — by the separatists or government — to consult with First Nations.

On the other hand, Smith and many members of her government have claimed their own preference is to remain in Canada. When you add that to the confusing, two-questions-in-one option on the omnibus referendum scheduled for this fall, it appears Smith is trying to impair the independence movement.

It’s important to note that opinion polls indicate that support for independence is relatively weak in Alberta. As well, a competing anti-separation petition organized by former Alberta deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk collected more than 400,000 signatures.

Perhaps the Stay Free Alberta campaign believes it could win a referendum to force negotiations with Ottawa on separation given that a 2021 referendum — which asked questions about ending equalization payments and adopting year-round daylight savings time — drew only about a third of eligible Alberta voters.

It appears that even if Smith gets her two-in-one separation question on the fall ballot, the results will fall well short of definitive.

More definitive is the reality that, regardless of the questions put to Alberta this fall, Smith’s United Conservative Party will likely be anything but safe when the dust clears on this battle.

» Winnipeg Free Press