Poilievre having a disastrous summer

In the wake of positive economic growth and improved unemployment figures this month, the federal Conservative mantra of a “technical recession” from a few months ago has essentially blown up in Pierre Poilievre’s face.

Canada’s job market added 75,000 jobs in July, with the unemployment rate falling to its lowest level in two years to 6.4 per cent.

Earlier in the summer toward the end of July, Canada’s economy showed definite signs of recovery as the industry-level gross domestic product rose in May at 0.3 per cent from the month before. The U.S.-based Wall Street Journal noted that the numbers pointed to annualized growth of 3.4 per cent in the second quarter, “which would mark the strongest pace since the first quarter of 2023.” The WSJ also noted that this is well above estimated growth in the United States of 1.5 per cent for the same period.

It’s also noteworthy that Canada’s annual inflation rate now sits at about 2.8 per cent — still too high, but slowly coming down, compared to the United States’ inflation rate, which has risen to 3.5 per cent.

In fact, according to Marketplace.org last month, the U.S. has higher inflation compared to other developed nations, and is the highest in the G7.

These indications show a marked contrast with Canada’s rather lacklustre economic showing in the spring. Recall that Statistics Canada reported in May that the country’s GDP had fallen 0.1 per cent on an annualized basis in the first quarter of 2026, which followed a revised one per cent decline in the fourth quarter of 2025 — what amounted to a “technical recession.”

While economists argued that Canada’s economy showed underlying resilience, and lacked the widespread job losses and deep, broad-based distress that would normally typify an economic downturn, Poilievre and his party took the view that the country was going to economic hell in a hand basket, thanks to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government.

Throughout May and June, the Tory leader repeatedly attacked the government over what he called a “full-blown” technical recession.

“The two back-to-back quarters of declining GDP are not a fluke, anomaly or technicality,” Poilievre said. “It is one of an avalanche of proof showing a collapsing economy with fast-rising costs. The recession is real.”

And yet, it would appear not so.

These numbers are, of course, mere snapshots of the month prior. For all we know, September could bring a worsening job market, a softer economy and higher inflation. But those in the know suggest that Canada’s is an economy in recovery, even after all the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

“It’s stronger growth than we were maybe anticipating a few months ago,” said CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham in an interview with The Canadian Press. “It is consistent with what we’re seeing in terms of the GDP figures that the Canadian economy is recovering, even though we do see that there’s more slack in the economy to go and this recovery will need to continue before we really have to worry about Bank of Canada interest rate hikes.”

The loss of the recession narrative undermined Poilievre’s main talking points going into July. And in fact, solid employment and GDP numbers would tend to validate Carney’s credentials as a skilled corporate and economic manager — not weak and ineffective as Poilievre has tried to argue.

This economic good news makes it more difficult for Poilievre’s populist and often negative rhetoric to gain traction within the wider public. In fact, Poilievre seems to be losing his audience — even among die hard supporters.

Nanos Research released results of a leadership poll this month that suggests Carney as the preferred prime minister of 56 per cent of respondents, with Poilievre a distant second with 18.4 per cent. Further, the Liberal Party of Canada is now polling at 47.1 per cent, compared with the Conservatives at 27.9 per cent nationally.

With news this week of another Conservative caucus member opting to resign his seat — this time Ontario MP Larry Brock in Brantford-Brant South-Six Nations, as of Sept. 18 — Poilievre is clearly having a disastrous summer.

In the wake of the poll numbers, political pundits have noted that Conservative Party members are openly saying that Poilievre will never be prime minister. And internal to the party, discontent would seem to be the byword.

Poilievre’s public feuds with provincial counterparts in Ontario and British Columbia have prompted accusations that he is a divider, not a uniter, and his refusal to tone down his negative political messaging is clearly harming the party’s fortunes.

We have to wonder just how long the Conservative leader will be able to avoid the inevitable.