Kerry Nation — Democrats start planning for 2020

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 20/01/2018 (2891 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It has been an interesting last 12 months in American politics. The Republicans have controlled all the levers of power in Washington, D.C., for a year and yet it appears Congress is having a difficult time working with a truculent president and a highly polarized electorate. In the midst of this mess is the ever-lengthening presidential election cycle, as Democratic aspirants for the White House are already beginning to show themselves.

President Donald Trump remains solidly locked in at 38 per cent in the popularity polls, regardless of the strength of the economy or the various messes he is determined to create. Imagine his popularity if only he didn’t use his Twitter account daily to weigh in on anything and everything.

Underneath the surface of these polls are indications that he is losing some support among white male voters and less affluent voters — two components of his electoral success in 2016. Of course, election results in Alabama, Virginia and in a number of state races further suggest that the Republicans could be in serious trouble, both in the 2018 midterm elections and the 2020 presidential election.

Sensing this vulnerability, Democratic contenders are beginning to stick their toes in the water. Unsurprisingly, the candidates appear to reside primarily on the left side of the Democratic Party. Among these potential contenders are Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, California Sen. Kamala Harris, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Vermont firebrand Sen. Bernie Sanders.

There will be some among this group who will choose to forgo a presidential campaign, and there will also be others who step forward. As of right now, we know that Trump is vulnerable and there is no small number of people who want the keys to the White House.

Among the many commonalities of the people listed above include residency on the left side of their political party and, for the most part, their relative lack of national prominence. Sanders, of course, is the exception to this rule having been a serious contender for the Democratic nomination in 2016. He’s a household name.

Could he win in 2020? My sense is that while he’s a formidable campaigner with a compelling anti-Wall Street populist message, Bernie is just too old. He will be almost 80 in 2020. With respect to seniors who have helped build our nation, it’s hard to see him able to capture the nomination at this age.

Of course, Joe Biden isn’t much younger. I suspect many Democrats wish he had run for president in 2016, including Biden himself. I think he would be a highly compelling figure, particularly with those voters who seek a more moderate figure in the White House.

Biden and Sanders aside, most of the contenders follow in the Hillary Clinton elitist camp that failed to capture the Rust Belt states needed to capture the White House. It wouldn’t be easy for a left-leaning Democratic woman from Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren, to appeal to working class disillusioned male voters from the Midwest, and yet she would need their votes to win.

Cory Booker from New Jersey is another shining star among the Democrats, but comes across as a less genuine Obama copy. President Barack Obama, while possessing a first-class education and compelling life story, always had the ability to speak like humans do, not like someone reading poll-tested lines from a TelePrompTer. In a period in which we seek authenticity in our leaders, politicians who seem to be reading off a script will have a tough time gaining traction with voters.

Somewhere in the Democratic field there is a contender who can speak to blue-collar workers without lecturing them about their shortcomings. If there is a female contender, and I think there are several excellent choices, then she will have to find a way to cross the gender divide in the era of #metoo, and that will not be easy.

If the economy is strong, and it is today, then Trump will be more difficult to beat. If it cycles down at an opportune moment, as it did in 1992 for Bill Clinton, then the Republicans will lose one of their few compelling arguments for staying the course.

Finally, we don’t know if Trump will run again. After all, he will be 74 in 2020, and it doesn’t look like he’s enjoying the job.

It’s the beginning of an interesting period for those of us who enjoy presidential politics. Stay tuned!

» Kerry Auriat is a lifelong Brandon resident.