LOCAL VIEWPOINT: Fort Whyte byelection could have big consequences

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 18/03/2022 (1636 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It could be a once-in-a-generation turning point in Manitoba politics, or it could be much ado about nothing.

On Tuesday, voters in Winnipeg’s Fort Whyte constituency will elect a new MLA to replace former Progressive Conservative MLA and premier Brian Pallister, who resigned last October. The seat has been vacant since then, and the Stefanson government waited until just before the six-month deadline to call the by-election.

There are five candidates running to become the riding’s next MLA. They are former Winnipeg Blue Bomber and current entrepreneur Obby Khan (PC), former Winnipeg Symphony and Winnipeg Folk Festival executive director Trudy Schroeder (NDP), former Blue Bomber and provincial government employee Willard Reaves (Liberal), Nicolas Geddert (Green Party) and anti-vaccination activist Patrick Allard (independent).

Under normal circumstances, this would be an easy win for Khan. Since its formation in 1999, the riding has always been represented by a PC MLA and has always been an easy win for Tory candidates.

For example, Pallister received 57.2 per cent of votes cast in the 2019 general election. In every election since the riding was created, the Tory candidate received more than half of all votes cast.

In other words, Fort Whyte has always been among the safest of Tory seats — the kind the party could count on for a win; the kind that didn’t require a lot of attention.

As a result, Fort Whyte has been largely taken for granted by the PC party and its MLAs for a long time. The riding doesn’t have the large, active and motivated team of supporters that many other PC-held ridings have. It doesn’t have hundreds of people it can reliably count on to knock on doors, make telephone calls, install signs and get voters to the polls.

That’s a big problem for Khan, but that’s not all. First, he’s running as a candidate for a party that, according to two years of polls, is very unpopular with Winnipeggers. He has to defend the government’s handling of the pandemic and a host of other unpopular policies.

Second, he’s running during a tough winter in the city, making it hard to convince riding residents to make the effort to vote. Third, the problem is compounded by the fact byelections almost always have low voter turnout, and people are usually far more motivated to vote against an unpopular government — to “send a message” — than to cast a vote that supports the sitting government.

It’s called “voter enthusiasm” and, in a byelection that’s being held when the government is deeply unpopular, you can bet there is far more enthusiasm among Fort Whyte residents who intend to vote (“likely voters”) for a non-Tory candidate. They are likely far more motivated to vote against the government than for it.

If that is the case, which candidate benefits?

It should be the NDP’s Schroeder. Her party is riding high in the polls inside the Perimeter, and they have plenty of volunteers to help her campaign. That’s the theory, but she has kept a surprisingly low profile both before and during the byelection campaign. Her campaign appears to lack the level of energy and enthusiasm that would be needed to steal the riding from the Tories.

That hasn’t been a problem for the Liberals’ Reaves. He has been knocking on doors for months now, has been active on social media and has the support of the riding’s federal MP, Liberal Terry Duguid. Reaves has tons of energy and enthusiasm, but Liberal candidates have only once received more than 18 per cent of votes in elections in Fort Whyte. The math isn’t on his side.

Having said all of that, the result of Tuesday’s byelection will have consequences for all three major parties and their respective leaders. For NDP leader Wab Kinew, a win isn’t needed but a poor third-place showing with a star candidate would cause questions about the NDP’s ability to win in Tory-held Winnipeg ridings.

For the Liberal leader Dougald Lamont, a win in Fort Whyte would be a huge step forward for him and his party. It would give the Liberals official party status in the Legislative Assembly, which comes with a bigger budget, more staff and a larger role during question period. It would give them profile and momentum heading into the general election next year.

For Premier Heather Stefanson, a win could quiet questions about her leadership, but a loss would be a disaster for her. It would send the message that few, if any, Tory seats are safe. It would make her vulnerable to yet another caucus mutiny, and it could cause a number of PC caucus members to decide to not seek re-election in 2023.

Tuesday’s by-election could change the direction of Manitoba politics, or it could just continue the status. Either way, it will be interesting to watch.

» deverynrossletters@gmail.com

» Twitter: @deverynross