HOG LINE: A foolish attempt at predicting the 2023 Scotties

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This article was published 17/02/2023 (966 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

After the complete disaster that was Curling Canada’s handling of its maternity leave rules, I’m sure the powers that be are happy curling fans will actually be talking about the games this week.

When the Scotties Tournament of Hearts begins in today in Kamloops, B.C., it will feature one of the most intriguing fields in recent memory.

For starters, there are at least five legitimate contenders and a handful of squads that could and sneak into the final four.

There are also four Manitoba teams competing, with Kerri Einarson returning as Team Canada, provincial champion Jennifer Jones and a pair of Wild Card teams skipped by Kaitlyn Lawes and Meghan Walter.

Although the exact road to the 2026 Olympics isn’t quite mapped out, this year’s Scotties will likely determine who the main contenders are to wear the Maple Leaf in Italy three winters from now.

For the second straight Scotties, I have foolishly done some power rankings and attempted to predict how the week will play out.

If you are a betting person, don’t put much stock into this. I picked Tracy Fleury to win the whole thing a year ago and she ended up fourth.

18) Nunavut (Brigitte MacPhail) — This team just about pulled off two upsets last year in Thunder Bay over Chelsea Carey and Krista McCarville. That might not happen this time around though as they are in a tough pool.

17) Yukon (Hailey Birnie) — Like their territorial counterparts, the Yukon team had a couple of close games at the previous Scotties but couldn’t find the win column. A similar fate could be in store this week.

16) Newfoundland & Labrador (Stacie Curtis) — The former Canadian junior champion is making her first trip to the nationals since 2018, where she almost made the championship pool. Don’t be surprised if they knock off one of the higher-ranked squads in Kamloops.

15) Alberta (Kayla Skrlik) — Arguably the biggest wildcard in this year’s field, Skrlik is debuting at the Scotties after running the table at her provincial playdowns and making one of the shots of the year in the final against Casey Scheidegger. Second Geri-Lynn Ramsay is returning to the event for the first time since she finished second with Kathy O’Rourke’s Prince Edward Island squad 13 years ago.

14) Quebec (Laurie St-Georges) — The 25-year-old, who is one of the most outgoing curlers on the circuit, will finally get to play a Scotties in front of a crowd after there were no fans at the 2021 event in Calgary and limited spectators a year ago in Thunder Bay. She already has one national title under her belt this year as she captured the Mixed title with partner Felix Asselin.

13) Prince Edward Island (Suzanne Birt) — Technically, Marie Christianson is the skip for the team, but Birt is still throwing the final stones. They’ve hung around the .500 mark at their last few trips to the Scotties and will probably be in that same spot this week.

12) Northwest Territories (Kerry Galusha) — Galusha is coming off of her best showing to date the Scotties as she beat Mackenzie Zacharias in a tiebreaker game last year to put the Northwest Territories in the playoffs for the first time. That might be a tough task this time around with the pool they are in, but they’ll definitely be in the mix again.

11) New Brunswick (Andrea Kelly) — There’s a slight change to the lineup for last year’s bronze medal winner as former Nova Scotia champion Jill Brothers is now playing second. Like Galusha, Kelly probably isn’t going to be a favourite due to the strength of her pool, but she should be in the hunt all week.

10) Wild Card 3 (Meghan Walter) — After starting the season at third, Walter swapped roles with skip Abby Ackland partway through the campaign and the team hasn’t looked back since. They won the DeKalb Superspiel in Morris, made the playoffs at the Pinty’s Grand Slam of Curling’s Canadian Open and finished second to Jennifer Jones at the Manitoba Scotties. This will definitely be a big great learning experience for Walter, who will celebrate her 21st birthday during the tournament and likely be in the provincial mix for years to come.

9) Nova Scotia (Christina Black) — Another of the surprise teams at last year’s Scotties, Black almost came back from a 9-1 deficit against McCarville before losing in the playoff round. Black and third Jenn Baxter finished in third with Mary-Anne Arsenault five years ago and have been in the hunt during their other two trips to the Scotties in 2015 and 2020.

8) Saskatchewan (Robyn Silvernagle) — The 2019 bronze medal winner put together a team partway through the campaign and they captured a provincial title in just their second event. Longtime teammate Kara Thevenot is back at lead and Kelly Schafer — who won a silver medal with Eve Muirhead’s Scottish squad at the 2010 World Championships in Swift Current, Sask., — is at third.

7) Wild Card 2 (Casey Scheidegger) — The Lethbridge product has a pretty strong team for the next couple of years with the additions of third Kate Hogan (nee Cameron) and lead Taylor MacDonald from Laura Walker’s old rink. Scheidegger has come out of the gates strong at her previous two appearances at the Scotties, but ended up fading near the end of the week and missing out on the playoffs.

6) British Columbia (Clancy Grandy) — The former third for Alison Flaxey’s Ontario-based team has had an impressive season in her new province and beat out Corryn Brown to earn the right to represent British Columbia on home ice. They’ve been one of the most pleasant surprises on the cashspiel circuit this year and are definitely going to be contenders this week. Plus, they’ve got a secret weapon in Olympic gold medalist Niklas Edin, who has been doing some coaching for them in recent events.

5) Wild Card 1 (Kaitlyn Lawes) — Even with Njegovan on maternity leave, the Lawes team hasn’t taken a step back with Walker stepping in to throw third stones. They’ll be looking to rebound from their semifinal loss to Walter at the Manitoba Scotties and should easily advance to the playoff round.

4) Manitoba (Jennifer Jones) — Jones hasn’t missed a beat since joining the Zacharias squad, which started off the season with a $50,000 payday at the PointsBet Invitational and ran the table at the provincials in East St. Paul. The legendary skip is one win away from setting the all-time Scotties championship record for a curler at seven. She shares that honour with Colleen Jones and longtime teammate Jill Officer.

3) Northern Ontario (Krista McCarville) — I’ll admit it, there’s a slight home province bias in having McCarville ahead of Jones, but the Thunder Bay skip has made the playoffs in her last six trips to the Scotties. They shouldn’t fly under the radar anymore, especially after finishing second a year ago, but that’s still the case since they don’t play a lot on the cashspiel circuit.

2) Team Canada (Kerri Einarson) — The Einarson quartet is chasing history in Kamloops as they can become the first team to win four straight Scotties since Colleen Jones’ squad accomplished that feat from 2001 to 2004. It has been another strong year for the team and anything less than a final appearance would be a stunner.

1) Ontario (Rachel Homan) — While new addition Tracy Fleury is calling the game, Homan remains the fourth stone thrower and her big-weight ability is still among the best in the sport. She and Einarson have been neck-and-neck all year and the top two squads in the country are likely to square off in the final next week. In the end, I think Homan will do just enough to end Einarson’s reign and capture her fourth title.