Weather specialist gives farmers a season preview

Manitoba could be heading into a warmer and more volatile growing season, with drought risk lingering in parts of the province despite healthy soil moisture in others, according to a weather outlook presented recently at Manitoba Ag Days in Brandon.

The presentation marked a significant moment for Justin Oertel and The Weather Centre of Manitoba, which delivered its first major seasonal forecast to producers at the western Manitoba farm show.

“I was shocked when I received an email from Ag Days asking me to speak,” Oertel said. “After that initial shock passed, I was extremely honoured to have a chance to speak at one of the province’s major farm shows.”

Oertel told farmers that soil moisture levels vary sharply across the province, largely depending on where heavy storms fell last summer.

“Soil moisture across southern Manitoba as a whole is in good shape,” he said. “Far southern Manitoba and southeastern Manitoba are looking the best, with ample moisture deep into the ground from severe thunderstorms and flooding late last summer.”

Conditions become drier moving north and east, particularly along the west side of Lake Manitoba near Alonsa, across the Interlake and east of Lake Winnipeg from Atikaki Provincial Wilderness Park northward, he said.

“Moisture is a bit harder to come by as you work your way northward,” Oertel said. “That could allow farmers in drier regions to get an earlier start in the fields, while wetter areas may have to wait longer for soils to dry.”

Southern Manitoba’s high water-holding capacity could also create challenges if snow melts quickly this spring.

“The ground won’t be able to absorb the water very fast,” he said. “That could mean an extended period of waiting before fields are workable.”

Looking ahead to summer, Oertel said he is not overly concerned about widespread drought in southern Manitoba, but expects warmer and drier conditions to develop as the season progresses.

“We should have decent moisture from now until May with a continued active storm track,” he said. “But once we get into June, July and August, I expect things to warm up quickly and dry out as well.”

Short-term drought could re-emerge in parts of Westman, including areas around Brandon, Minnedosa, Neepawa, McCreary and Glenella, he said.

His greater concern lies farther north.

“Northern Manitoba and northern Saskatchewan are still plastered with severe to extreme drought conditions from last summer,” Oertel said. “There hasn’t been an exceptional amount of precipitation this winter outside of one major storm near Thompson.”

If those areas remain dry and experience above-average heat, he said wildfire risk will climb again this summer, particularly with a projected transition toward El Niño conditions.

“We are predicting temperature anomalies this summer across the province of about one to two degrees above average,” he said. “We also expect precipitation to be generally below average, although spring is likely going to be on the wetter side before drying out later in May or June.”

Oertel based his outlook on long-range climate models and “analog years” or past seasons with similar ocean and atmospheric patterns, with 2023 offering the closest comparison.

“That was a year marked by persistent heat, below-normal precipitation and frequent severe weather,” he said, noting Manitoba recorded eight tornadoes and a high number of major storms.

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Oertel said the Brandon presentation was an important step for The Weather Centre of Manitoba as it continues expanding its public outreach.

“Our posts reach millions of people every month, but standing in front of producers and talking directly about what this means for their fields was a big deal for us,” he said. “We take a huge amount of data and narrow it down so people can understand what it means for their safety and their operations.”

He said the goal of the presentation was not just forecasting, but preparation.

“My hope is that people take away that weather forecasting isn’t an easy thing to do,” he said. “But if we can help people be ready when severe weather hits, that’s what matters.”

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