Campaigning with hope while ignoring reality

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 23/09/2023 (925 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

I call it the “Dead Man Walking” phase of a political campaign, and I’ve experienced it from every possible perspective — as a candidate, as a campaign worker, as a journalist and as an ordinary voter.

It’s the point in the campaign when it becomes obvious to almost everybody (there will always be some who refuse to acknowledge the writing on the wall) that there is no reasonable chance of winning.

Despite this grim reality, you are expected to show up for debates agreed to weeks earlier, and daily door-knocking sessions, with a smile on your face and a sales pitch that suggests you are still fighting for the win. The problem is that you know deep down that it’s not true, and so does almost everybody you come into contact with.

You’re not fooling anybody, least of all yourself. And, the harder you sell, the greater the risk you take of appearing disconnected from reality. Desperate, even.

Even though many candidates know they have no hope of winning when they file their nomination papers, something strange happens to many of them during the campaign. They might have a good debate or receive several nice responses while door-knocking. They might receive an unexpected donation or do well in an online poll.

They become so driven by hope, so caught up in the vortex of day-after-day-after-day campaigning, so sleep-deprived and burned out, that they lose their ability to accurately read reality. They begin to honestly believe they actually might have a shot at winning, and that gives them the fuel to keep knocking on doors, attending events and showing up at debates.

The problem is that it’s not true and, for most candidates, it never was. It’s just a hopeful mirage.

That’s the reality that many candidates in the current provincial election campaign are coming to grips with this weekend, as they try to summon the strength and support to continue working to earn the support of voters in their respective ridings.

Earlier this week, three separate polls by three credible polling companies revealed that the Manitoba New Democrats have regained their massive lead in Winnipeg, and have a smaller lead province-wide. If those numbers hold for the remaining nine days of the campaign, we appear to be headed toward a majority NDP government for the next four years.

While those numbers are energizing NDP campaign efforts in Winnipeg and various constituencies beyond the Perimeter Highway, the triple-punch of polling data is having a deflating, demoralizing impact on Tory and Liberal campaigns. Indeed, more than a dozen Tory candidates (many of them incumbents) who thought they had a realistic chance of being elected are suddenly confronted with the growing possibility they may not have jobs in two weeks.

That includes both the Brandon East and Brandon West constituencies. In Brandon East, where I live, incumbent Tory MLA Len Isleifson was already in a tough fight against NDP candidate Glen Simard, who has been working the riding for months, shows up at every event and has an army of volunteers.

In Brandon West, Tory candidate Wayne Balcaen was believed to be cruising to victory, but the odds appear to be shrinking. Sources in the NDP provincial campaign told me three weeks ago that they were surprised by their own polling data, which showed that NDP candidate Quentin Robinson was trailing Balcaen by just 10 points.

Take that with a big grain of salt if you wish, but the surging strength of the NDP province-wide, combined with the absence of a Liberal candidate to split anti-Tory votes in the constituency, could make Brandon West a battleground to watch on election night.

With two weekends of campaigning remaining before election day and the polls running against their party, many might say this is the time for Isleifson and Balcaen and Robinson to “pull out the stops,” “hit the gas pedal” and “show us what they’re made of” — as if one more flyer with exaggerated claims, or one more visit to your doorstep, will earn your vote.

They can say that, but we’ve reached the point in the campaign where the success of local candidates is largely dictated by the actions of the party leaders and decisions made by campaign managers in Winnipeg. Their fates will be largely determined by events and decisions beyond their control.

Many will say that such a circumstance isn’t fair, and they would be right. It’s politics, and who ever said politics was fair?