Silence drills holes in Stefanson’s leadership

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This article was published 14/10/2023 (1070 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Progressive Conservatives are saying all the right things about soon-to-be former Premier Heather Stefanson’s decision to stay on as party leader until a replacement is found sometime next year.

Caucus chairman and MLA Ron Schuler and party president Brent Pooles both applauded the move. Several outside commentators expressed support, noting having an experienced hand at the Tory helm at a time of great upheaval was a pretty solid idea.

There’s just one problem.

To date, Stefanson has not offered much of an analysis about her party’s hyper-negative, controversial election strategy. When asked during the campaign itself, she claimed to have no direct involvement in the messaging or advertising. Since losing the election and signaling her intention to resign the leadership, she has avoided all contact with the news media.

Other people in the party have, of course, stepped forward to fill the void.

Campaign manager Marni Larkin spoke candidly about designing a strategy to shore up key rural seats at the expense of tight Winnipeg races. Candidates such as former Riel MLA Rochelle Squires, meanwhile, have been just as candid in describing some aspects of the campaign as “atrocious.”

What of the leader? It is generally accepted her concession speech on election night was both honest and graceful. She thanked her party and campaign team, and offered heartfelt congratulations to NDP premier-designate Wab Kinew for his “historic” win.

She provided no direct response to the allegations the Tories ran a campaign rooted in racism and transphobia. Perhaps election night wasn’t the right forum for that kind of commentary.

There is a very good argument for the fact the steady, compassionate Stefanson we saw on election night was exactly the kind of leader her party needed at that moment. But in the days since, Stefanson has avoided any scenario where she might have to face tough questions.

Even when the party announced Oct. 6 she was staying on as leader, Stefanson did not do a scrum or other form of media availability to discuss her decision to continue leading or the election results.

All of which is to say, even as an interim leader, Stefanson is not providing particularly good leadership.

A big part of political leadership is demonstrating a willingness to accept responsibility for things that go wrong. As is so often said, the buck stops with the leader, good or bad.

As it stands, we know Stefanson was the point woman on the offensive Tory pledge to “stand firm” against searching a Winnipeg-area landfill for the remains of slain Indigenous women. She certainly spouted more than her fair share of vagaries about the “parental rights” plank to activate far-right social conservatives across the province.

However, when asked directly on the day before voting started, all Stefanson could do was blame the messaging and advertising on her campaign team.

Moving forward as leader of the official Opposition, that kind of response isn’t going to bode well for her or her party.

There is a possibility the decision to stay on was reverse engineered to avoid the prospect of having Stefanson remain in the legislature but occupying a seat in the back row.

Such was the fate suffered by former premiers Gary Filmon and Greg Selinger.

Both resigned their leaderships after suffering election losses; Filmon in 1999 and Selinger in 2016. Both lingered for a time in the legislature before resigning their seats.

The sight of Filmon, occupying a seat in the last row of the legislative chamber, saying nothing and asking no questions, was an unbefitting image for a leader of his gravitas and accomplishments.

It’s highly likely the party convinced Stefanson to stay on as leader until next year to avoid triggering a snap byelection.

Stefanson only won Tuxedo by a couple hundred votes, a crushing result in one of the safest Tory seats in Winnipeg. There is no evidence the Tories have the appetite to test the patience of those voters again in the near future.

As a result, it is quite likely, after deciding she needed to hang in for the time being, either she or the party came up with the idea of remaining as leader to avoid having her suffer the indignity of languishing in the back row.

It’s not a bad thing for the party to protect Stefanson from further indignities, but it is decidedly bad to have her fulfilling the leader’s duties if she cannot provide effective leadership.

Stefanson was profoundly, if not a little unfairly, unpopular among the electorate. So much so, the Tory campaign rationed her involvement in key campaign announcements.

Soon forced to make daily appearances in question period and spearhead the duties of the official Opposition, she will have no cover.

Until she is more honest with Manitobans, Stefanson is the leader who tried to use trans youth and slain Indigenous women to turn back the tide of support for the NDP.

Stefanson may have some insights that might be able to alter the impression she’s left from the campaign. But the longer she goes avoiding the political elephant in the Manitoba legislature, the longer people will remember the awful campaign she led.

» Dan Lett is Winnipeg Free Press columnist. This column previously appeared in the Winnipeg Free Press.