Kinew not immune to political gravity

When I was a Park School student in the early 1970s, my class went on a field trip to Winnipeg. After spending the morning at the Museum of Man and Nature (as it was then known) and being wowed by the displays and planetarium, we piled into our school bus for a short trip to the Manitoba Legislative Building.

As the bus stopped on the driveway in front of the building, Edward Schreyer, the new premier of the province, walked past our bus and onto to the stairs leading into the building. As my fellow students and I saw him from the inside of the bus, we all started cheering. He heard us and waved to us, which made us cheer even louder.

Schreyer was a political rock star at the time. Young, smart and charismatic, he was widely adored as Manitoba’s first NDP premier. It is no exaggeration to say that his popularity in the province at that time was similar to the Trudeaumania wave that had swept Canada in 1968.

Just a few short years later, however, the public’s adoration had evaporated. In 1977, Schreyer’s New Democrats were defeated by the Progressive Conservatives, who were led by the non-charismatic, often-dour Sterling Lyon.

I recalled that long-ago experience with then-premier Schreyer this past Thursday, when I read that a poll conducted by the Angus Reid Institute had found that premier Wab Kinew is once again Canada’s most popular premier. Kinew’s 68 per cent approval rating may be reason for celebration in Room 204 of the Manitoba Legislative Building (the premier’s office), but it should also be cause for concern, and not solely because of the law of political gravity.

That law has consistently proven that no popular politician remains popular forever. They eventually — inevitably — wear out their welcome in the eyes of voters. For example, Quebec Premier Francois Legault enjoyed the highest approval rating in the nation a few years ago, but is now Canada’s least popular premier.

The passage of time alone causes most politicians to lose their shine among voters, but there are storm clouds on the Manitoba horizon that could hasten Kinew’s descent, beginning with discontent within his own party.

Prior to the 2023 provincial election campaign, Kinew promised there would be no new pipelines in Manitoba if he became premier. Just two years later, however, he is enthusiastically promoting the construction of oil and gas pipelines to the Port of Churchill as a way of getting those natural resources to European markets.

University of Manitoba chemistry professor Chris Wiebe, who is also a former NDP candidate and provincial executive member, told the Winnipeg Free Press earlier this week that “The province is burning and we’re talking about building pipelines up north, and I just don’t see how a New Democratic Party can be discussing that.”

He says that the Kinew government “govern more as conservatives,” adding that “They kept the Tory tax cuts, health care is in a shambles, our education system isn’t doing great and we’re talking about building pipelines. It’s all coming from the premier’s office.”

Wiebe is not alone in his views. A number of longtime Manitoba New Democrats have complained to me that Kinew has hijacked their party. Many argue that, from a policy perspective, he isn’t even a New Democrat. One prominent NDP member told me “He’s a Liberal who ended up running for us after the Liberals rejected him, and now we’re stuck with him.”

Kinew’s apparent abandonment of pro-environment policies have upset many NDP supporters, but so too has his government’s inability (so far) to fix the many problems in our health-care system — as he promised during the 2023 campaign. Wait times for care are growing, as is the shortage of family doctors, specialists, nurses and technologists.

Kinew committed to deliver a balanced provincial budget before the end of the current term in government — just two years from now — but the province’s finances appear to be getting worse, not better. Last year’s deficit was more than half a billion dollars higher than the $796-million deficit that was originally projected.

On education, many Manitobans have seen large increases in their education property taxes this year, yet our kids’ academic performance remains at or near the worst in the nation.

That’s bad, but what’s worse is the way Kinew has been behaving recently. On a few occasions since becoming premier, he has been accused of acting arrogantly and behaving in a bullying, intimidating manner.

As his popularity has grown across the nation, however, we have seen more glimpses of an ego-driven, darker side to his personality.

During question period, Kinew often speaks and gestures in an abusive manner, in full view of the public. During a recent legislative committee meeting, he called Opposition Leader Obby Khan a “liar” and “a joke,” made fun of him for crying in a scrum, and told him to “call me dad.”

The long exchange between the two leaders was ugly stuff. It was far from the cordial, charismatic demeanour that Kinew has carefully crafted since becoming NDP leader — and that’s the trap that he must do a better job of avoiding.

Kinew’s popularity has grown as he has been able to convince Manitobans that he is no longer the swaggering, angry thug that he admits he was in his troubled past. When he openly behaves in an intimidating and/or arrogant manner, however, it causes many to wonder if he has really changed at all, and whether he is really the best person to be our province’s premier.

For a guy who appears to have set his sights on an even higher political office, that’s a dangerous problem.

It’s time for Kinew to start delivering on his campaign promises and to consistently behave in a manner befitting his position as premier. If he can’t do that, he will inevitably end up on a scrap pile with so many other once-popular politicians — and perhaps sooner rather than later.