Poilievre in strong position with Parliament resuming

Opinion

If a federal election were held today, there is a good chance the Conservative Party would elect the greatest number of MPs and that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would be our next prime minister.

That’s the conclusion to be drawn from three national polls released over the past three weeks, including two released earlier this week. On Aug. 17, Abacus Data released the results of its most recent poll, which found that the Conservatives held a 41-39 lead over the governing Liberals.

This past Tuesday, the Angus Reid Institute revealed that its latest poll found near-identical results, giving the Tories a 42-40 lead. On Thursday, however, Mainstreet Research revealed that its most-recent poll found the Liberals leading the Tories by that same 42-40 margin.

Given the margin of error for each of those three polls, the parties are statistically tied in nationwide support.

That reality will come as a shock to those who believed that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals were enjoying a solid wave of support following their victory in April’s federal election. Numerous polls confirmed that perception as recently as two weeks ago, but this week’s polls suggest that a shift in public opinion may be occurring at this moment.

What is causing that shift, assuming it is real? It appears to align with Poilievre’s victory in the Battle River-Crowfoot byelection, after which he began making a series of announcements targeting the performance of the Carney government to date.

Poilievre has turned up the volume on his “rage farming” machine, and he is once again getting results. More importantly, he is proving that the large coalition of conservative Canadians who supported Tory candidates in the April election remain united in their quest to defeat the Liberals.

And what an interesting coalition it is. Younger voters used to favour the Liberals and NDP, but the Mainstreet poll found that the Tories hold a large lead in support among Canadians between 18 and 49 years of age. Beyond that, college-educated voters favoured the Liberals for decades, but they now prefer Poilievre’s Conservatives.

Even more surprising is the fact that Mainstreet found that the Liberals lead the Tories in support among white voters, but that the Conservatives lead the Liberals by a large margin among Black, Latino, Middle Eastern and First Nations voters. That data contradicts the long-held perception that the Conservative Party is primarily a collection of angry white people.

The Mainstreet data tells us that many of the perceptions we have about both the composition and motivations of the Conservative “base” are wrong. The group is clearly younger, more diverse and more determined than many realized.

All of that is good news for Poilievre, who faces a leadership review at the Conservative Party’s annual convention in January. If the current polling numbers hold up until then, he will have a very strong argument that it would be a mistake for the party’s members to oust him and begin a long and divisive leadership election process, at a time when the party may be on the verge of winning the next election — which could come as early as next year.

For those who fear the potential consequences that could flow from the election of a Conservative government with Poilievre as PM, the latest polls should be a loud wake-up call. In many ways, the Liberals’ victory this spring was a fluke, caused primarily by the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president.

Carney successfully sold himself to Canadian voters as the best choice to stand up to Trump, but Poilievre has pointed out that our new PM has failed so far to satisfy the lofty expectations. Instead of the “elbows up” approach that the voters were promised, Carney has too often retreated in response to threats and bluster from the Trump administration. That’s not what Canadians thought they were voting for.

Even more importantly, the large and durable Conservative base of support continues to hold the view that the Liberals are responsible for much of the anxiety and frustration that many Canadians are feeling these days. Yesterday’s disappointing job numbers, which showed that tens of thousands of Canadians lost their jobs in July, only reinforces that position.

In the aftermath of April’s election, many pundits suggested that Poilievre would have to soften his approach and messaging in order to save his job and have any hope of winning the next election. The latest polling data suggests that advice was wrong.

Support for Poilievre and his party appears to be holding strong. Combine that with the Tories’ superior fundraising abilities and organizational infrastructure and there is ample reason for the Carney Liberals and their supporters to be concerned.