Immigration policy a moving target

With more than 85 million people naming it their top choice, Canada has become one of the most desired migration destinations in the world over the past decade.

Yet even in 2024, its highest year on record, Canada only admitted about 480,000 new permanent residents, a small fraction of global demand.

Despite earlier plans to increase admissions, the intake is now set to decline in response to mounting pressures on housing and public services. There has also been political pushback from opposition parties and segments of the public who argue that the government’s rapid expansion of immigration targets has outpaced Canada’s ability to absorb newcomers.

The challenge, however, is not how few people get in; it is how unpredictable the system has become.

A SHIFTING FRAMEWORK

In June 2022, the federal government amended the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act to give itself more flexibility.

It rolled out a new immigration stream to prioritize in-demand occupations in health care, engineering and agriculture, as well as French-speaking applicants.

In the earlier system, fixed points for education and high-skilled work experience provided applicants with a clear way to assess their eligibility. In contrast, the new category-based approach relies on occupational needs that shift rapidly.

The goal was to respond quickly to labour shortages and economic goals by consulting with provinces, industries, labour groups and the public. However, this category-based selection has been rolled out with little consistency or transparency. Announcements come with no clear timelines, fixed numbers or indication of when a stream might close.

In this new framework, broad categories such as health care or STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) encompass hundreds of distinct occupations. Yet the government may single out only a handful of these occupations for invitations while excluding the rest, which makes outcomes unpredictable even within the announced priority categories.

MIGRATION IS A LONG-TERM PROJECT

What this changing immigration policy fails to consider is that immigration is not an instant decision, but a long-term project.

My research shows that people may spend more than a decade preparing for migration by carefully choosing a field of study, seeking related work experience, saving aggressively and even reshaping their personal lives. Some even avoid intimate relationships or postpone having children in hopes of migrating. However, those plans fall apart when the qualifying requirements change quickly.

The uncertainty created by shifting immigration policies is not felt only abroad. Within Canada, roughly three million people are on temporary permits, and many of them are hoping for a chance at permanent residency. They spend years establishing roots in their communities, with the belief that it will ultimately lead to a more secure future. But when policy priorities change unexpectedly, their lives are thrown into limbo.

International students are a clear example. Many spend tens of thousands of dollars on tuition, averaging $41,746 for international undergraduates in 2025–26, encouraged by the promise that a Canadian education will improve their chances of staying.

Yet, as the rules change, they may find themselves with no option to stay in Canada once their studies end. Similarly, temporary foreign workers may fill urgent labour shortages, only to see pathways to permanence narrow or close before they can apply.

A PROBLEM FOR EVERYONE

Quick and unpredictable changes in rules make immigration seem like a lottery rather than a structured system. Success now often depends not on careful planning or merit, but on being in the right place at the right time.

The lottery effect erodes confidence in Canada’s immigration policy. It conveys the idea that long-term planning and investment might not be essential and that today’s standards might change tomorrow.

Uncertainty also fuels a darker consequence: fraud.

When pathways open and close overnight, some people take shortcuts by fabricating credentials, work experience or job offers that match the latest requirements.

These patterns of instability and deception pose significant concerns for a country that relies on immigration to maintain its labour force, economy and demographic balance. At the same time, immigration has become increasingly politicized in recent years.

Consequently, the political climate has shifted toward risk-averse immigration policies that focus on immediate results instead of developing sustainable approaches.

A MORE SUSTAINABLE SYSTEM

Immigration is essential to Canada’s future because it sustains the workforce as the population ages, with nearly all of Canada’s labour force growth now coming from newcomers.

Despite myths about migration, economic immigrants generally contribute more in taxes than they consume in public services over the long term. Additionally, immigrants start businesses at higher rates, bring diverse skills and perspectives and establish global connections that drive innovation and long-term economic growth.

However, many newcomers struggle to find employment in their designated fields due to barriers such as credential recognition or social integration.

Meanwhile, many temporary residents who have studied, worked in highly skilled jobs and paid taxes for years are ineligible to apply for permanent status because their occupations are not on the list. They end up leaving despite their contributions.

The immigration system should include defined criteria, realistic deadlines and transparent information that lets people inside and outside Canada plan with confidence. Consistency is crucial.

A more sustainable approach would connect permanent residency more closely to proven success in the Canadian labour market. At the end of the day, immigration should be based on preparation, abilities and dedication — certainly not on luck.

» Omid Asayesh is a postdoctoral fellow in sociology at the University of Calgary. This column was originally published at The Conversation Canada: theconversation.com/ca