Global politics as we enter 2026

The U.S. has dominated the rules-based global order for the past 75 years. But now, Washington “has chosen to walk away from the international system,” Ian Bremmer, head of the Eurasia Group, said recently in his annual state-of-the-world speech. “Not because it’s weak, not because it has to — because it wants to.”

It’s a bizarre historical precedent. And the implications for the global balance of power will be profound.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine ap-proaches its fourth year shrouded in uncertainty. A corruption scandal has rocked Ukraine’s government, forcing President Volodymyr Zelen-skyy’s chief of staff to resign. Kyiv is meanwhile scrambling to stall White House negotiators from brazenly tilting ceasefire talks in Vladimir Putin’s favour. The Russian leader refuses to compromise, convinced he is winning on the battlefield.

Indeed, Russian forces are advancing but at glacial speed. The Kremlin is achieving this partly through strengthening drone capabilities. But also, maintaining a grotesque disregard for its troops, mindlessly throwing them into the buzzsaw of Ukraine’s AI-powered defences. Ukrainian authorities say Russia is now losing 1,000 soldiers a day to gain less than five kilometres of territory per month.

Still, Kyiv cannot hold out indefinitely. Maintaining its current defence posture is forecast to generate a gaping budget deficit of US$159 billion combined over the next two years. The directionof the war may thus hinge on whether Ukraine can secure a financial lifeline.

A game-changer would be if the EU provides Ukraine a loan underwritten by sanctioned Russian assets frozen in European banks. Doing so might also ease U.S. grievances with the continent for neglecting responsibility for its own security.

Either way, next year will likely feature further disintegration in ties between Europe and America. The Trump administration released a national security strategy earlier this month that endorses the idea of great powers carving up the globe and lording over their respective spheres of influence.

The document is dripping in contempt for European liberal democracies. “I think they’re weak,” Trump said of European leaders in an interview with Politico shortly after the strategy was released. China is reframed as an economic competitor — not a geopolitical adversary. The Kremlin has praised the strategy for aligning with Russia’s interests.

Trump himself seems consumed by a growing urge to oust Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro. But if Trump acts on this, he could plunge America into its next forever war.

Removing Maduro alone would do little to dislodge the kleptocratic military regime around him. His departure could instead unleash a dangerous kaleidoscope of actors within Venezuela, each vying for more power. From Cuban spies to Colombian rebels and Venezuelan pro-government militias, the competition would be deeply destabilizing for the Western Hemisphere. Not to mention trigger a wave of refugees.

Elsewhere, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas hangs by a thread. Israel claims it killed a senior Hamas commander on Dec. 13 — one of more than 500 strikes it has conducted since the two sides struck a tepid peace deal in October.

Hamas has also so far refused to disarm, a key component required to move to the second phase of the U.S.-brokered agreement.

Yet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has his own incentives to keep fighting. He knows he must keep Israel on a war footing to keep his fragile political coalition stitched together ahead of elections next October. It comes as no surprise then that Israel also recently assassinated a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut and persistently launches airstrikes in southern Syria.

The geopolitical dynamics of the AI revolution will intensify next year too.

In 2025, governments worldwide pivoted from a focus on AI safety toward a desire to encourage innovation. Many fear being left behind in an era of rising protectionism and economic nationalism.

Policymakers in smaller advanced economies, like Canada, also seek to bolster digital sovereignty by disentangling themselves from both the Chinese and U.S. tech stacks. The goal being to lessen their nations’ vulnerability to economic coercion from predatory great powers.

These are just some of dynamics poised to shape global affairs in 2026. Others include China’s efforts to rebrand itself as the new guarantor of global stability and multilateralism. In Africa, gen Z-led popular uprisings over lack of opportunity and cost of living could spring back to life at any moment. India, Brazil, Turkey and Gulf monarchies will continue to hedge their bets between Washington and Beijing.

Overall, 2025 marked the return of a multipolar world. In 2026, expect a further drift towardsthe law-of-the-jungle rather than nations rallying around collective interests.

» Kyle Volpi Hiebert is a Montreal-based political risk analyst.