When antitrust meets the art of the deal

The battle for Warner Bros. has become a case study in how media consolidation decisions are made in 2025 America, and it should alarm Canadians.

Netflix’s $83 billion bid to acquire Warner Bros.’ studios and streaming operations has set off a Hollywood corporate cage match. In response, Paramount Skydance has launched a hostile takeover attempt, backed by Oracle billionaire Larry Ellison, offering more cash up front but a shakier set of potential investors.

But the real source of drama isn’t the boardroom battle, it’s U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to insert himself into what should be an independent regulatory review.

In 2025, American antitrust looks less like the West Wing and more like the Sopranos.

Earlier this year, the HPE-Juniper merger saw senior antitrust officials resign in response to a settlement they argued was motivated by insider lobbying. In the case of Warner Bros. there is no need for allegation. President Trump openly stated he would be “involved” in the deal’s fate.

When the president openly declares a preferred outcome based on his feelings about CNN coverage, we’ve moved beyond conventional competition policy.

This outcome of this saga matters to Canadians, and not just because we consume American entertainment. The Netflix-Warner Bros. transaction raises profound questions for artists, exhibitors, and the crews who bring stories to life.

The Writers Guild of America has called the deal exactly what antitrust laws were designed to prevent — the world’s largest streaming company swallowing one of its biggest competitors.

The results will be as expected. Fewer jobs, downward pressure on wages, less content, and higher prices for consumers.

Then there’s CNN.

Under Netflix’s offer, the cable news network would be spun off, stranding CNN in a declining business model weighed down with debt.

Paramount’s competing bid includes CNN, with owner David Ellison reportedly promising Trump “sweeping changes.”

Either way, one of America’s major news organizations faces an uncertain future shaped by presidential preferences rather than market forces.

When local news is collapsing and media concentration across North America is already extreme, this is a further erosion of the diversity of voices in journalism. For Canadians who depend on American media and who share concerns about the health of democratic institutions, this is troubling.

Which brings us to Canada’s dilemma. Our government has the authority to review this transaction both on competition and foreign investment grounds.

But will it? The president who has shown such personal interest in this merger’s outcome will also be dictating the terms of the USMCA trade negotiations set to begin in January.

The U.S. administration has already imposed punishing tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, automobiles and lumber. The review of our continental trade agreement, governing $3.6 billion in daily cross-border commerce, is now freighted with grievances against Canada.

Any Canadian objection to a merger supported by the president could easily become another bargaining chip in negotiations where we already face demands to dismantle supply management, accept intrusive content regulations, and make concessions on digital services.

But the idea that giving American companies a pass will smooth trade tensions is foolish.

Canada negotiated USMCA in good faith during Donald Trump’s first term. Yet, we’ve witnessed the U.S. administration use emergency powers to circumvent the agreement’s protections since Trump took office again in January.

We can make all the concessions we want until another ad or tweet causes a setback in the negotiations and we end up gaining nothing.

American companies are a fact of life. If we give up our ability to have a say in how they operate within our borders, we give up control over a meaningful portion of our economy.

Given its tinseltown focus, Netflix-Warner Bros. may seem frivolous.

But it’s a test case for how independent nations, including Canada, navigate an era when antitrust enforcement is an instrument of political power.

If we’re not going to try to navigate this era, we’ll be forced to simply endure it.

» Josh Krane is a partner at MLT Aikins specializing in competition, antitrust and foreign investment and Keldon Bester is the executive director of the Canadian Anti-Monopoly Project (CAMP). This column was previously published in the Winnipeg Free Press.