Deveryn Ross — Voter volatility makes election result less likely

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 09/04/2016 (3778 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

This may be the equivalent of an electoral mirage — the perception that one party is cruising to a huge victory, with the outcome being far different.

On Monday, Insight Manitoba released the results of a massive poll of 4,592 Manitobans, which found that Brian Pallister’s Progressive Conservatives enjoy the support of 50 per cent of decided voters, with Greg Selinger’s New Democrats trailing at 26 per cent, Rana Bokhari’s Liberals at 18 per cent and James Beddome’s Green party at seven per cent.

That is a big change from the 2011 election, when the Tories received 43 per cent of votes, the NDP received 46 per cent, the Liberals received eight per cent and the Green party received just three per cent.

Inside Winnipeg, where 3,454 voters were surveyed, Insight found that the Tories were at 46 per cent, the NDP at 29, the Liberals at 19 and the Greens at six. Again, that differs from the results of the 2011 election, in which the PCs received just 35 per cent of votes, the NDP received 52 per cent, the Liberals received 10 per cent and the Greens received three per cent.

On Wednesday night, the results of a poll by Mainstreet Research were released and the results were similar to the Insight poll. Provincewide, the Tories were at 50 per cent of decided voters, the NDP at 25, the Liberals at 16 and the Greens at nine. Inside Winnipeg, the Tories enjoyed the support of 46 per cent of decided and leaning voters, with the NDP at 29, the Liberals at 16 and the Greens at nine.

On Thursday night, the results of a much-anticipated Probe Research poll were released. Province-wide, it found the Tories at 46 per cent, the NDP at 28, the Liberals at 20 and the Greens at six. Inside Winnipeg, the Tories lead with 38 per cent support, with the NDP at 34, the Liberals at 21 and the Greens at seven.

While the three polls agree that the Tories have a commanding provincewide lead, the situation is far less clear inside Winnipeg. Insight and Mainstreet say the Tories are up by 17 points over the NDP, but Probe says it is just a four-point lead. If Insight and Mainstreet are correct, more than a dozen NDP seats inside Winnipeg will switch to the Tories. If Probe is correct, however, the races inside the Perimeter will be much closer, with the NDP likely to retain many of those seats.

What that means is that the Tories appear destined to win a majority government 10 days from now, but the size of that majority is yet to be determined.

That would be a safe prediction, but three additional factors could significantly impact the result. The first is the surprisingly large percentage of undecided voters this late in the campaign. Insight found that 17 per cent still have not decided which party’s candidate they will vote for. Mainstreet put the number at 22 per cent, while Probe found it to be even higher, at 24 per cent.

If up to one-quarter of voters are yet to make up their minds, as the three polls found, it creates the potential for a significant shift in voter preference in the final days of the campaign, and huge unpredictability as to the outcome of the election.

Second, there is some suspicion among pundits that the three polls do not fully reflect the collapse of the Liberal vote. If that is the case, where those votes migrate to will impact the results in a number of close constituencies.

Third, there is the possibility publication of the three polls’ results will influence voter turnout and voter choices. If the Tories appear destined to win, many NDP, Liberal and Green party supporters may decide there is no point in voting. As well, the perceived inevitability of a Tory victory may cause some to vote for their PC candidate in order to have an MLA on the government side.

All we can say at this point is the Tories appear to have a huge lead. With so many voters yet to make up their minds, however, this election campaign isn’t over yet.

» Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon. His columns also appear in the Winnipeg Free Press. deverynrossletters@gmail.com. Twitter: @deverynross