South Winnipeg seats key for election victory

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 07/09/2023 (1002 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It’s all about the south — the five seats in southern Winnipeg, that is.

All five electoral districts were held by Tory MLAs when Progressive Conservative Leader Heather Stefanson made it official Tuesday, and called a provincial election for Oct. 3.

Most would have to turn orange for the New Democratic Party, favoured to win the election, to form the next Manitoba majority government.

A lot of things would have to fall into place for that to happen. However, the five constituencies — Waverley, Fort Richmond, Riel, Lagimodiere and Seine River, which form a cluster in the southernmost part of Winnipeg — are expected to be the key battleground.

The NDP had 18 seats at dissolution. The party needs to keep those and add at least 11 more to win a razor-thin majority of 29 in the 57-seat legislature.

It’s doable. But like any election, it ain’t over till it’s over.

The easiest seats for the NDP to flip are in the north and eastern parts of Winnipeg, where the party has strong support.

If the time-for-a-change movement that began well over two years ago in Manitoba continues over the next four weeks, the NDP is favoured to win the Winnipeg swing ridings of McPhillips, Rossmere, Radisson, and Southdale, as well as Assiniboia on the west side of the capital city. (The Tories won the latter by a small margin in the 2019 election.)

That would give the NDP five more seats.

Winnipeg is normally where provincial elections are won and lost in Manitoba. But the NDP probably can’t form government without picking up a few seats in rural Manitoba.

The swing ridings of Brandon East, Selkirk and Dauphin — all held by the Tories at dissolution — are the most winnable for the NDP outside of Winnipeg.

If the party succeeds in all of the above, it would bring the NDP’s seat gain to eight — short of what’s needed to form government but enough to bring the party within striking distance of victory.

Which brings us to the five seats in southern Winnipeg, where the real battle will occur.

It is largely Tory territory, but there are winnable seats there for the NDP. Many of them have been represented by New Democrats in the past.

Progressive Conservative strongholds northwest of those constituencies — Fort Whyte, Tuxedo and Roblin — will likely remain blue. The Tories typically win those ridings by large margins in general elections.

Kirkfield Park, further to the west and also held by the Tories at dissolution, is winnable for the NDP, but by no means easy pickings. The former Tory stronghold was plucked by the NDP in 2007, and held for two terms before the PCs regained it in 2016.

The NDP likely has to win at least three of the five southern seats in Winnipeg to form government (which would bring its seat gain to 11). The outcome in that part of the city will probably depend more on what the Tories do over the next 28 days than how the NDP performs.

The NDP has to make itself appealing in those constituencies. It’s no coincidence the party chose Victoria General Hospital, located in Fort Richmond, as the first of three hospitals where it promises to reopen emergency departments.

However, if the Tories want to remain in government, it will be up to them to convince voters in that part of the city they are not the same party once led by Brian Pallister. That version of the party valued fiscal restraint above all else, grossly mismanaged health care, and moved the party further to the right on the political spectrum.

Southern Winnipeg may be partial to the Tory brand, but it doesn’t share the same social conservative values as PC ridings in the rural south. Southern Winnipeg, more than anywhere else in the province, is where Stefanson has to demonstrate the Tories are a kinder, gentler party that has progressive ideas when it comes to tackling crime, poverty, addictions, reconciliation, LGBTTQ+ rights and the environment.

Can that be done in 28 days?

Election campaigns are important. Voters pay attention to politics the most during writ periods. Anything can happen during a campaign. Still, it’s a tall order for the Tories to change their spots (and erase the large lead the NDP has commanded in Winnipeg over the past 2 1/2 two and a half years) in such a short period of time.

Some efforts have been made by the Tories to achieve that in the months leading up to the election call, largely by opening the purse strings after seven years of austerity. But those moves have been counteracted by Stefanson’s peculiar decision in recent months to pander to the party’s core supporters outside Winnipeg.

The premier’s recent social conservative dog-whistling (promoting greater “parental rights” in public schools), her 1990s-style “tough-on-crime” agenda, her bizarre pledge to re-litigate the federal carbon tax in court, and her refusal to search the Prairie Green Landfill for the remains of two First Nations women believed slain by an alleged serial killer, may play well in southern rural Manitoba.

Unfortunately for the Tories, it comes at the expense of the progressive support they need in Winnipeg.

If Stefanson can’t turn that around in the next four weeks, she will become the shortest-serving premier (chosen by her party) in modern Manitoba history.

» Tom Brodbeck has been covering Manitoba politics since the early 1990s and joined the Winnipeg Free Press news team in 2019. This column previously appeared in the Free Press.