The future of nature’s carbon sink

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 04/11/2024 (307 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Earth currently absorbs around half of all human carbon emissions through its oceans, forests, soils, and other natural carbon sinks, thereby regulating the planet’s climate. However, over the past 60 years, the yearly rate of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels is around 100 times faster than previous natural increases (according to NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory). Preliminary findings from 2023, the hottest year ever recorded in human history, show that the amount of carbon absorbed by land decreased significantly. According to one study, forests, plants, and soil had absorbed almost no carbon, having a global net land CO2 sink of 0.44 ± 0.21 GtC yr-1 (a measure of the Gigatons of carbon absorbed), the weakest since 2003. (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2407.12447)

There have been many warning signs of this development throughout the years as Greenland’s glaciers and Arctic ice has been melting faster than estimated. This interferes with the Gulf Stream’s ocean current, slowing the rate that the ocean absorbs carbon. Melting sea ice also affects algae-eating zooplankton as it exposes them to more sunlight — keeping them in depths for longer and disrupting the vertical migration that stores carbon on the ocean floor. Canada’s forest fires last year have also contributed massive amounts of CO2. Because of these wildfires, the preliminary data on our land carbon sink could be temporary, but it shows the fragility of these ecosystems and the direction climate change is heading.

Without the presence of technology that can remove large-scale atmospheric carbon, reaching net zero would be impossible without nature. The Earth’s resources are the only option for absorbing human carbon pollution, which reached a record of 37.4 billion tonnes in 2023. Because of the constant pressure being put on these resources, they continue to get damaged over time. The oceans are the largest absorber of CO2. Having soaked up 90 per cent of the warming from fossil fuels in recent decades, the rising water temperatures are weakening the carbon sink. Soil is the second largest carbon store, and its emissions are expected to increase by as much as 40 per cent by the end of the century if it continues in its current state. If our natural carbon sinks stop working, the world would have to make much more drastic cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.

While human emissions are easier to measure, these natural carbon sinks are much more complex to understand. Climate change models made by scientists over the years agree that both the land sink and the ocean sink are going to decrease their absorbance in the future. But the unpredictability of when is causing climate scientists to worry. There are many factors not included in these models because of recent losses, such as wildfires — making the estimates much too optimistic. In recent years, many estimates have also been made on how we can increase the amount of carbon absorbed by forests and ecosystems. But many researchers now say the bigger challenge is protecting the carbon sinks we already have, because for many years we have worked with the assumption that they would always be with us.

Sustainable Brandon is a nonprofit organization that is working to make the City of Brandon more eco-conscious. They’ve done community clean ups, helped climate strikes, and have given presentations to the city council. The Environment and Climate Change Committee of Brandon City Council is a new formal committee of council that was created when the Brandon Environment Committee dissolved. They help educate the community about environmental issues, and in May of 2023 adopted the Climate Change Action Plan with the goal to be net zero (no greenhouse gas emissions, or offset emissions) by 2050. Aidan Punak Murphy, a recent École secondaire Neelin High School grad, is a youth representative on the Environment Climate Action Plan Committee. He was able to answer a few questions.

Q: What was your reaction to finding out that our lands and trees are no longer absorbing as much CO2?

A: To be honest I’m not too surprised that our lands and trees aren’t absorbing as much CO2 as they used to. We’re living in a time where each year wildfires are getting stronger and stronger and just flat out wiping huge chunks of forest that used to suck up all this CO2. It’s really sad, but I’ve also learned recently that forest fires are a natural part of some forest’s life cycles; and we’ve suppressed these fires for hundreds of years. Because of all this suppression, these fires now are much bigger, hotter and stronger which is why they’re so hard to contain. But because these boreal forests are quite literally built to be burnt down; the land isn’t useless after a fire has ravaged it. We’re already seeing signs of healthy regrowth in many places; and hopefully these previously burnt lands will be able to suck up CO2 again soon.

Q: What do you suggest everyday people do to help mitigate the climate crisis?

A: A few things that I can think of are to learn what you can and can’t recycle (there are a lot of things you might not know that can be recycled), try and actively use less water (not letting faucets run, take shorter showers, install water efficient taps and toilets). If you’re able, try to compost. The biggest thing any one person can do is try your best to not rely on a personal vehicle. Transportation is the biggest chunk of carbon emissions made by any individual person, and if you’re in a situation where you can afford to bike to work, or maybe take the bus, do it!

Q: What do you see in the future if our carbon emissions remain the same as they are now?

A: I’m going to be totally honest; I don’t really know. Of course it is important to understand the urgency of climate change; how it impacts biodiversity and kills ecosystems, but it’s even more important to not drown yourself in the doom of it all. I can sit here and think about how bad everything might be if we do nothing; but ultimately, I believe it’s more important to look at what has already happened because of climate change and use that as motivation to ensure the damage we’ve already caused doesn’t get exacerbated.

Q: As a recent Neelin grad, are there any resources or opportunities that you would like to share for young teens who also want to get involved with helping sustainability and the environment?

A: Sustainable Brandon is a volunteer-run committee whose goal is to try and raise awareness for the people of Brandon who are concerned with the environment. Bee City Brandon is another volunteer-run group in Brandon who specializes in raising awareness about the importance of pollinators! They were the group behind the restoration of Eleanor Kidd Park by the Riverbank. (In addition), I am the youth representative on the Environment Climate Action Plan Committee, which is a group that is helping people who work for the City of Brandon to become more environmentally conscious. If you, or anyone you know have any concerns you’d like me to raise at one of the meetings, you can email me at =N:E=

Q: Is there anything else you would like to share related to this topic?

A: Try your best to stay optimistic! It’s so, so easy to get lost in all the negative stories, the buzzwords and the fear mongering about climate change; but if we’re spending all our time being told how bad everything is, how are we expected to fix any of it? If you or someone you know is passionate about making a genuine difference, I challenge you to go find a positive story about climate change. There are quite a few of them out there, because there are millions of people who want to make the world a better place. You’re not alone. Even here in Brandon, even at Neelin, there are way more people than you realize who want to do a little bit of good. We’ve got this.

There are many resources mentioned above that are aiming to make Brandon a more sustainable city. By sharing their goals or by spreading information about climate change, it could make a big difference in our community. Learning about this topic is already an important step in making a change!

» Georgia Feng is a Grade 11 student at École secondaire Neelin High School