Getting Hydro facts straight

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 20/03/2025 (273 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Regular readers of this column will know how hard I work to ensure that the factual assertions I make are accurate. They will also know that I have written several times about issues facing Manitoba Hydro and, in particular, the challenges it will be facing over the next several years.

That said, Manitoba Hydro’s media relations officer, Peter Chura, has taken issue with a column written by me (“Hurtling toward a power shortage”), which was published in the Sun on March 8.

In a letter to the editor that was published in this newspaper last Saturday, Chura says he is seeking to “clear up some incorrect information and misconceptions” contained within my aforementioned column. He begins by claiming the province is not facing the prospect of “blackouts,” as I suggested in my column. He says that Manitoba Hydro only expects to need additional capacity to meet peak winter loads by 2029-30.

That’s not what Hydro has been saying for the past 2 1/2 years. In July 2023, a document prepared by Manitoba Hydro entitled “Manitoba’s Energy Roadmap” revealed that “Manitoba currently has an installed generating capacity of 6,600 MW” and “by the early 2040s growing demand for electricity in MB could require 10,000 MW to 16,000 MW of generating capacity.” It also disclosed that there are currently “4,400 MW in new requests from 18 energy-intensive industrial projects.”

Beyond that, a confidential Manitoba Hydro briefing note dated Sept. 13, 2023 stated that Hydro’s “near-term surplus electricity supply” is so small that even “a single energy-intensive connection may consume all remaining electrical capacity.”

That same document also revealed that there were 57 proposals at that time that would require large volumes of electricity, but that “Manitoba Hydro is unable to offer firm commitments to prospective customers that may align with Manitoba’s energy roadmap and/or provincial economic development objectives … As such, Manitoba Hydro cannot reserve electric supply for particular projects.”

In February 2024, then-Manitoba Hydro CEO Jay Grewal told a Chamber of Commerce audience that the province could require new energy generation as early as 2029, and must begin looking for ways to encourage Manitobans to reduce demand.

Chura says the province is not facing the prospect of blackouts by 2029, but that is exactly what Grewal was saying last year, and that dire possibility is echoed by the Sept. 13 briefing note. Back then, just 18 months ago, Hydro was warning that we were so close to running out of electricity that the addition of just one more industrial user to the grid would leave us with no surplus power.

Based on that reality, it’s hardly surprising that Grewal was saying last year that Manitobans may have to reduce their demand for electricity. She was merely describing the situation as it existed then, and there is no reason to believe it has improved since then.

Chura also suggests in his letter that the “up to” 600 megawatts of electricity that would be supplied by “majority Indigenous-owned wind suppliers” will solve our impending electricity shortage. He’s wrong, for at least two reasons. First, Manitobans need a reliable, on-demand supply of electricity, but wind-generated power is only available when it’s windy. You can’t count it being there when you need it.

Second, 600 megawatts of additional electricity, even if it was a reliable supply, would only represent a small fraction of the total amount of additional power that Manitoba Hydro itself predicts we will need within the next 15 years. It wouldn’t come close to solving the massive shortage we are facing.

Chura also says that “no one has said Manitoba Hydro’s existing 280-megawatt natural gas generating station at Brandon is being decommissioned in the near future,” but a CBC report from just three weeks ago (“Manitoba Hydro proposes $1.4B fuel-burning generating station to stave off winter power shortages,” Feb. 27) says that “Premier Wab Kinew has asked (Finance Minister Adrien) Sala to phase out the on-demand use of Manitoba’s sole existing natural gas-fired plant, the 280-watt Brandon Generating Station, by 2035.”

The Winnipeg Free Press also reported a year ago that the Kinew government has directed Hydro to ensure that Manitoba has a net-zero electricity grid by 2035 — just 10 years from now — and to eliminate any reliance on natural gas (“Fossil fuel fouls clean-grid future,” March 28, 2024). Beyond that, an earlier Free Press report (“Kinew tells cabinet to deliver net-zero electricity grid by 2035,” Oct. 28, 2023) revealed that Kinew directed (then) environment minister Tracy Schmidt in October 2023 to make Manitoba’s electricity grid net-zero by 2035.

“Net zero” would obviously mean no more natural gas-fuelled generating stations anywhere in the province.

Finally, Chura takes issue with my assertion in my March 8 column that Manitoba Hydro should not be entering into multi-year contracts to sell electricity to other jurisdictions when we are facing an imminent energy shortage here in Manitoba. Given the situation we are in, as described by Grewal last year, all Manitoba-generated electricity is needed here in Manitoba.

Chura ends his letter with the claim that he believes it is “critical” for Manitoba Hydro customers in Westman to get the “real facts about Manitoba Hydro.” I totally agree. Those facts are found in the documents I referred to above, and the comments by Hydro’s former CEO, Grewal — and they were the foundation for my March 8 column.