Pumpkin spice ritual masks Canada’s cost-of-living pain

Opinion

Behind the popularity of pumpkin spice lattes is a bitter truth about the state of Canada’s economy.

Pumpkin spice isn’t just a flavour — it’s part of a billion-dollar global trend that reveals how deeply Canadians have embraced comfort as ritual.

Every September, the scent of cinnamon, nutmeg and clove returns to cafés and grocery aisles across Canada. The crisp air and return of routine mark more than a seasonal shift — they trigger a ritual that has become both cultural tradition and economic signal. Pumpkin spice has evolved into a global phenomenon, revealing how nostalgia, indulgence and scarcity shape modern consumer behaviour.

The global pumpkin spice market is valued at US$1.1 billion in 2025 and is expected to more than double by 2032, growing by more than 10 per cent annually. At the centre of it all is Starbucks’ Pumpkin Spice Latte. First tested in Vancouver in 2003, the latte now generates over US$500 million a year in North America alone. For a product available only a few months a year, the scale is extraordinary.

Canada mirrors global trends with some distinct twists. In 2024, more than 11,500 acres of pumpkins were planted nationwide, feeding both fresh consumption and processed food production. Despite its smaller population, Canada is estimated to rank just behind the United States in per-capita pumpkin spice consumption. That speaks to how deeply the flavour has become part of the country’s autumn identity.

The economic story behind this is revealing. In an era of persistently high food costs and shrinking household budgets, small indulgences take on outsize meaning. A $6 latte may seem extravagant, but compared with the cost of dining out, it offers accessible comfort.

That helps explain why the category continues to thrive. In 2024, U.S. dollar sales of pumpkin spice beverages rose 15 per cent, even though unit sales declined. Consumers bought fewer drinks, but spent more when they did: a textbook example of what economists call the “lipstick effect,” where small luxuries survive while bigger ones get cut.

Businesses haven’t missed this shift. Starbucks has steadily pushed up its Pumpkin Spice Latte launch date (Aug. 21 in 2024 and Aug. 26 in 2025), expanding the sales window and encouraging early seasonal spending. Chains like Dunkin’ and McDonald’s have followed, turning pumpkin spice into an annual marketing arms race.

But with products ranging from Cheerios to dog treats now available in pumpkin spice, the risk of overexposure is real. Saturation could blunt its emotional appeal. Still, for now, Canadians seem willing to pay a premium for what feels like comfort wrapped in a cup.

Behind the scenes, indulgence depends on inputs. Unlike artificial trends, pumpkin spice requires real agricultural products. Growers in Ontario and Quebec benefit modestly from the seasonal spike, though pumpkins remain a minor crop compared to grains.

The bigger concern lies in the imported spices, cinnamon, nutmeg and clove, which are highly sensitive to climate shocks and global supply disruptions. Rising input costs may eventually force companies to raise prices or cut quality, testing the upper limit of consumer loyalty.

Some marketers are already looking to what comes next. Maple-based lattes, sweet potato blends and matcha-pumpkin hybrids are gaining traction on social media. Matcha is a powdered green tea used in drinks and desserts. But if the next big thing follows the same pattern, it won’t change what pumpkin spice already tells us: in a high-cost economy, many Canadians appear to be retreating into routine, seeking affordable luxuries to maintain a sense of control. And that should raise eyebrows.

The pumpkin spice boom is more than a seasonal trend. It’s a signal: even as households tighten their belts, they’ll still pay for comfort, familiarity and ritual. When a $6 latte feels like a splurge, it says more about the state of the economy than the drink itself.

Policymakers and business leaders should pay attention. Pumpkin spice isn’t just a flavour of the month. It’s a warning sign that many Canadians are coping with economic pressure not by changing their conditions, but by relying on small comforts while larger affordability challenges remain unresolved. That may be good for retail margins, but it’s not a healthy indicator for the country.

» Sylvain Charlebois is a Canadian professor and researcher in food distribution and policy. He is senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast.