Learning about local economy

The new year is a time for resolutions.

It is also a time for countdowns. Often recounting the top things, good and bad, from a year gone by.

This past October at the economic summit hosted by Grow Brandon, Gerald Cathcart, director of economic development for the City of Brandon, shared a number of things you “need to know about the Brandon economy right now.” I thought it was an interesting list and thought I’d reshare the top five that caught my attention from that presentation.

BRANDON IS GROWING … AND GROWING FAST

Brandon grew by four per cent each year between 2021 and 2024. This is significant growth. If we were to sustain that pace, we’d be over 100,000 people by 2040!

Many years ago, Brandon was one of the faster growing parts of the province after Maple Leaf added its second shift. After that, the pace of growth slowed. It was more modest for a period.

Since the pandemic, things have picked up considerably. Largely driven by immigration, including enhanced numbers attributed to our Rural Community Immigration Pilot, a Provincial Nominee Program partnership and a considerable number of international students at our post-secondary institutions.

Given the changes in immigration policy nationally, including a reduction in planned immigration levels from 500,000 a year to 150,000 a year, it is likely this growth will slow in the next few years, but there is significant momentum.

THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE INVESTMENT

The private sector invested considerably since 2020, including $225 million in commercial and industrial building permits and $600 million in other capital investments. We saw a quarter of a billion in 2024-25 alone.

This is good news for the future and a true vote of confidence in the fundamentals of the Brandon economy. Money talks. It’s not the bluster of self-promotion, but a true indicator of people’s belief in the future in Brandon.

There have also been considerable public sector investments: from the city this includes water drainage, water treatment and wastewater remediation ($441 million) and from the province, things such as the hospital expansion and pledges to expand post-secondary institutions. We look forward to what Canada’s commitments to increased military spending could mean for a place like CFB Shilo.

EXPORTS ARE STRONG

Exports are the key to true economic growth. Brandon businesses exported $5.3 billion in goods and services outside the city in 2022!

The current trade disputes notwithstanding, I suspect this number has grown since. Hopefully a deal on canola is forthcoming and the situation with our friends to the south stabilizes.

As the premier says, the economic horse pulls the social cart. Exports are a key metric on our true economic health.

THE FUTURE OF OUR WORKFORCE IS BRIGHT

Admittedly, in my mind, I have a perception that Brandon, as community, skews older. This perception might not be the reality.

Our worker replacement ratio is 1.21, whereas Manitoba as a whole is 0.8, Saskatchewan is 0.7 and Alberta is 0.8.

A ratio over 1.0 means that for every person leaving the workforce, more than one person is entering to take their place. This positions Brandon well for the future.

Further, despite provincial reports that have fretted youth leaving the province we have some other indicators that offer hope.

At Assiniboine College, we track graduates nine months and four years after graduation. We have a consistent result over many years that might surprise folks — Manitoba has net population gain because of Assiniboine College. Our most recent survey, for example, showed that only 71 per cent of 2023-24 graduates originated in Manitoba, but nine months after graduation, 96 per cent were still living in Manitoba.

That’s net population growth and brain gain as a result of our programs. This “train and retain” strategy contrasts with what we have seen in some other jurisdictions and institutions, where “educate and export” is the norm.

At Assiniboine, we have three big goals in our strategic plan to 2030. One was to directly contribute to growing Manitoba’s population by 3,000 people. (The other two were achieving 2030 annual graduates by 2030 and having 2,500 Indigenous graduates by 2030.)

BRANDON BRINGS YOU BACK … TO LIVE

While “Brandon Brings You Back” was adopted nearly seven years ago as a tourism slogan, I’d argue it fits better as a population slogan than a tourism one.

Brandon is a great place to raise a family. As a testament to this, the city was ranked the ninth-best place in Canada to raise a family.

A 2024 analysis by Remax had Brandon as the third most affordable place to buy a home in Canada. Red Deer was No. 1 and edged us out, even though its average housing price is higher than Brandon, as a percentage of income going to your mortgage.

Public dialogue often surrounds those struggling to find housing or gain ownership. I understand this. But we do need to find a way to better market Brandon as a place to live based on affordability.

Since the pandemic, there is renewed interest in smaller cities. Many big cities like Toronto and Vancouver offer little hope of home ownership for average folks. This is an area where Brandon can strengthen its position as a place to raise a family.

Gerald’s presentation of the facts about the Brandon economy had me thinking and challenged some of my preconceived notions. Certainly, it challenges some of the perceptions from coffee row.

But this is the benefit of an event like the Grow Brandon Economic Summit. It allows for a showcase of what’s happening, and a dialogue about what the future could or ought to look like. I look forward to the next summit this November when we will have an opportunity to return to talk about what 2026 brought us and what 2027 and beyond might bring.

Best wishes for health and happiness in 2026!